Armchair Hockey Scout

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2024-25 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2024-25 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

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4

Juuso Välimäki

Utah Hockey Club Defense

The best plus-minus on the club, on twelve penalty minutes.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2018-19CGY24123-212001283.615:29
2020-21CGY492911-226000722.815:26
2021-22CGY9022010000110.015:42
2022-23ARI7843034-1059101934.318:11
2023-24ARI6821517+1212000692.919:06
2024-25 so far—————————————
Career—22895867-21191022733.317:29

This Season So Far

The 2024-25 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

68 games, 2 goals and 15 assists for 17 points, 12 penalty minutes, 19:06 a night and plus-12 — the best figure on the club. He took 50.9 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 1,159 minutes, the 60th percentile, and his ice went 52-37 against an expectation of 47.31-45.65.

Five goals of finishing above what the chances were worth and almost nine goals of goaltending above them. The plus-12 is a crease and a set of forwards as much as it is him, and it is still the best number on the club.

The Finesse Game

118 attempts at a median of 49 feet with 61 per cent of them from beyond forty and 13 per cent from inside twenty, 69 of those on goal, converted at 2.9 per cent against a career 3.30 across 273 shots.

Fifty-eight career assists against 9 goals in 228 games. There is almost no shot here — a career 3.30 per cent across five seasons — and the value is in getting the puck to somebody who has one; 30 assists two seasons ago is the ceiling of that.

The Physical Game

He is 6-2 and 201 and took 12 penalty minutes in 68 games.

119 career penalty minutes in 228 games. Twelve minutes across sixty-eight games at nineteen minutes a night is a very clean line for a defenceman; he defends by position and gets his stick on the puck rather than the man.

The Intangibles

Sixteenth overall in 2017 by Calgary, five seasons, and Utah is his second organisation.

A career minus-2 in 228 games. He was a first-round pick who played 82 games in his first three seasons put together and has played 146 in the two since.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed
  • he lacks itraised, and he does not have it

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • slot-man· shoots from where goals are scored

    18.6% of his attempts in the slot, 94th percentile among defencemen

    Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.69) · 44% keep it

  • disciplined· stays out of the box

    0.18 penalty minutes a game over 68, 5th percentile among defencemen

    Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.75) · 35% keep it

  • defensively-responsiblea strength· comes back; can be trusted with a lead

    “Twelve minutes across sixty-eight games at nineteen minutes a night is a very clean line for a defenceman; he defends by position and gets his stick on the puck rather than the man.”

  • net-fronthe lacks it· lives in the blue paint; the screens and the tips

    “There is almost no shot here — a career 3.30 per cent across five seasons — and the value is in getting the puck to somebody who has one; 30 assists two seasons ago is the ceiling of that.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2023-24 · 1,159 minutes

Expected goals
50.9%
60th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
49.1%
48th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 52 for, 37 against. Expected: 47.3 and 45.6.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
62nd
Numbers
60th

The two rank him within 2 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 652 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 72 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2023-24 · 68 games

Top speed
22.3 mph
75th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 21.7

Bursts over 20 mph
0.40 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
2.80 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
84.3 mph
17th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 90.2

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2023-24 with ARI · 1159 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2023-24

The club
ARI took 48.9% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 50.9% — 2.0 above the club he did it on.
The role
Second pair, 1,159 minutes at five-on-five — 79th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Michael Kesselring48.4%52.5%51.2%
Nick Schmaltz53.8%49.4%47.4%
Clayton Keller51.2%50.8%49.0%

48.4% together, 52.5% for him apart and 51.2% for Kesselring apart. He was better away from Kesselring, who was no worse away from him — the pairing cost him more than it cost Kesselring.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

118 unblocked shots in 2023-24, 2 of them goals. His median goal came from 56 feet. 13% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 61% from beyond forty.