Armchair Hockey Scout Beta

This is the 2024-25 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →

53

Michael Carcone

Utah Hockey Club Left Wing

Undrafted, 5-9, and 21 goals in 74 games at 18.9 per cent.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2021-22ARI21426-8140003611.112:19
2022-23ARI9213+320001513.312:39
2023-24ARI7421829-23511411118.911:16
2024-25 so far
Career104271138-75111416216.711:36

This Season So Far

The 2024-25 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

74 games, 21 goals and 8 assists for 29 points, 1 on the power play, 1 shorthanded, 35 penalty minutes, 11:16 a night and minus-2, with 4 game-winners. He took 44.4 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 792 minutes, the 17th percentile, and his ice went 38-38 against an expectation of 30.24-37.92.

Eight goals of finishing above what the chances were worth and level at the other end. Forty-four point four per cent is tied for the lowest chance share of any forward on the club and he still finished level.

The Finesse Game

149 attempts at a median of 25 feet with 40 per cent of them from inside twenty and 24 per cent from beyond forty, 108 of those on goal, converted at 18.9 per cent against a career 16.67 across 162 shots.

Twenty-seven career goals against 11 assists in 104 games. Eighteen point nine per cent is the highest rate on this club and it is not a rate anybody sustains; the shot is genuinely quick and 149 attempts in eleven minutes a night is the number that will decide whether he keeps the job.

The Physical Game

He is 5-9 and 182 and took 35 penalty minutes.

Fifty-one career penalty minutes in 104 games. He is 5-9, as short as anybody on the roster, and gets to the inside anyway, taking 40 per cent of his attempts from within twenty feet at a size where that means wearing something for each one.

The Intangibles

Undrafted, three seasons, and Utah is his second organisation.

A career minus-7 in 104 games from a man nobody drafted. He reached the league at 25, played 30 games in his first two seasons, and scored 21 goals in his third.

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2023-24 · 792 minutes

Expected goals
44.4%
18th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
45.8%
21st pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 38 for, 38 against. Expected: 30.2 and 37.9.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
72nd
Numbers
18th

The report ranks him 54 points above where the numbers do. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.

Both bars are percentiles among the 652 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 74 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Usual linemates

2023-24 with ARI · 792 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2023-24

The club
ARI took 48.9% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 44.4% — 4.5 below the club he did it on.
The role
Third line, 792 minutes at five-on-five — 38th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Alex Kerfoot40.5%46.2%48.6%
Liam O'Brien44.1%44.5%48.3%
Juuso Välimäki47.7%42.9%51.8%

40.5% together, 46.2% for him apart and 48.6% for Kerfoot apart. Both were better apart than together — the pairing was doing neither of them any favours.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

149 unblocked shots in 2023-24, 21 of them goals. His median goal came from 16 feet. 40% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 23% from beyond forty.