Armchair Hockey Scout

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2023-24 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2023-24 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

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52

Sean Kuraly

Columbus Blue Jackets Center

The most defensive-zone usage in the National Hockey League, and his ice went 23-55.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2016-17BOS8011-12000110.09:12
2017-18BOS756814-5400011344.512:15
2018-19BOS7181321+6380031346.013:46
2019-20BOS6961723-234000956.313:17
2020-21BOS47459-1020002884.514:04
2021-22CBJ77141630+26100012111.615:52
2022-23CBJ7111920-286811010011.015:04
2023-24 so far—————————————
Career—4184969118-382631166837.213:58

This Season So Far

The 2023-24 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

11 goals and 9 assists in 71 games, minus-28, 68 penalty minutes, 15:04 a night.

41.7 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five, the 8th percentile, and his ice went 23-55 — minus-32, the fourth-worst on-ice goal differential in the league, and two of the worst four are Columbus players.

The deployment is most of the explanation. He started 24.3 per cent of his shifts in the attacking zone, the 1st percentile: 148 attacking draws against 461 defensive ones. Nobody in hockey was sent out in worse circumstances more often.

Seven seasons, 418 games, 118 points.

The Finesse Game

100 shots at a median of 26 feet, 36 per cent from inside twenty.

Inside forty: 62 shots, ten goals, 16.13 per cent. Beyond forty: 29 shots, none.

11 goals at 11.0 per cent shooting is the second-best total of his career and it is not the job. 49 goals in seven seasons.

84.8 mph at the 11th percentile. He is not a shooter and nobody has ever asked him to be one.

The Physical Game

6-2 and 208. 22.7 mph at the 74th percentile with 1.8 bursts over twenty a game at the 83rd — he gets to speed often, which is what a fourth-line centre taking defensive-zone draws has to do.

2.44 miles a game at the 39th percentile. Short shifts.

68 penalty minutes in 71 games is a high rate and consistent across his career: he has taken 34 or more in five of seven seasons. He finishes checks and he plays the wall.

The Intangibles

133rd overall in 2011, out of Miami of Ohio, five seasons in Boston and a Stanley Cup Final in 2019.

He is the man Columbus send out to start shifts in their own end, and the record of doing that on the worst defensive club in the league is the minus-28. It is close to the least informative number in this edition and it is the one that will be quoted.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • perimeter· shoots from the outside, by choice or because he cannot get in

    28.1% of his attempts from 40 feet or beyond, 90th percentile among forwards

    Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.66) · 50% keep it

  • hard-minutes· is started in his own end, against the other club's best

    24% of his end-zone starts in the attacking end, 2nd percentile among forwards

    Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.66) · 50% keep it

  • penalty-killera strength· trusted a man short

    “He is the man Columbus send out to start shifts in their own end”

  • faceoffsa strength· takes the draw that starts it

    “he gets to speed often, which is what a fourth-line centre taking defensive-zone draws has to do”

  • wins-the-walla strength· the corners and below the goal line

    “He finishes checks and he plays the wall.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2022-23 · 887 minutes

Expected goals
41.7%
8th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
41.8%
5th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 23 for, 55 against. Expected: 30.5 and 42.6.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
20th
Numbers
8th

The two rank him within 12 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 638 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 59 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2022-23 · 71 games

Top speed
22.7 mph
80th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.0

Bursts over 20 mph
1.85 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
2.44 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
84.8 mph
34th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 84.9

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2022-23 · 887 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2022-23

The club
CBJ took 44.1% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 41.7% — 2.4 below the club he did it on.
The role
Third line, 887 minutes at five-on-five — 48th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Eric Robinson41.6%41.9%40.5%
Mathieu Olivier44.9%37.1%41.8%
Erik Gudbranson40.8%42.3%40.6%

41.6% together, 41.9% for him apart and 40.5% for Robinson apart. Splitting them up moved neither man. Whatever is driving the share, it is not this pairing.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

135 unblocked shots in 2022-23, 10 of them goals. His median goal came from 21 feet. 36% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 28% from beyond forty.