Armchair Hockey Scout

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2023-24 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2023-24 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

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59

Egor Chinakhov

Columbus Blue Jackets Right Wing

A 101.6 mph shot at the 99th percentile, on 44 shots in 30 games.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2021-22CBJ627714-2716101987.112:30
2022-23CBJ304913-610100449.113:15
2023-24 so far—————————————
Career—92111627-33262011427.812:45

This Season So Far

The 2023-24 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

4 goals and 9 assists in 30 games, minus-6, 13:15 a night. He missed 52 games.

44.4 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 360 minutes, the 17th percentile, with his ice at 14-21 against an expectation of 12.06-15.09. On 360 minutes none of that is worth leaning on.

Two seasons, 92 games, 27 points. He has played 62 and 30.

The Finesse Game

44 shots at a median of 36 feet, only 11 per cent from inside twenty and 43 per cent from beyond forty — an unusual distribution for a winger and the same one Laine has.

Beyond forty: 18 shots, two goals, 11.11 per cent. Inside forty: 26 shots, two.

The shot measures 101.6 mph, the 99th percentile — one of the four or five hardest in the league — and he took only four slap shots, which is the case where the tracked maximum is not simply recording a wind-up. This one appears to be about the hands.

44 shots is far too small a sample to conclude anything about the yield, and the velocity is not a sample.

The Physical Game

6-1 and 203. 23.0 mph at the 85th percentile and 3.5 bursts over twenty a game at the 98th — a very high rate of getting to speed, in thirteen-minute nights.

2.22 miles a game at the 26th percentile. Short shifts at full pace, again.

55.0 per cent of his five-on-five shifts started in the attacking zone, the 72nd percentile. He was given the attacking end more often than not, on the club with the fourth-worst chance share in the league, and the possession numbers should be read knowing that.

10 penalty minutes in 30 games.

The Intangibles

21st overall in 2020 out of Omsk, and the pick was a surprise on the night.

He is 22, has 92 games, one of the hardest shots in the league and no consistent role. The talent is measurable and unusual. The availability and the deployment are both against him, and the first of those is the one that has to change.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • perimeter· shoots from the outside, by choice or because he cannot get in

    43.1% of his attempts from 40 feet or beyond, 100th percentile among forwards

    Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.66) · 50% keep it

  • edgesa strength· changes direction at speed; the forechecker commits and he is gone

    “3.5 bursts over twenty a game at the 98th — a very high rate of getting to speed, in thirteen-minute nights”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2022-23 · 360 minutes

Expected goals
44.4%
17th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
45%
17th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 14 for, 21 against. Expected: 12.1 and 15.1.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
15th
Numbers
17th

The two rank him within 2 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 638 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 57 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2022-23 · 30 games

Top speed
23.0 mph
87th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.0

Bursts over 20 mph
3.53 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
2.22 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
101.6 mph
100th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 84.9

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2022-23 · 360 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2022-23

The club
CBJ took 44.1% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 44.4% — 0.3 above the club he did it on.
The role
Fourth line, 360 minutes at five-on-five — 9th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Cole Sillinger45.9%42.3%44.1%
Erik Gudbranson30.7%53.3%41.7%
Andrew Peeke51.4%41.3%43.0%

45.9% together, 42.3% for him apart and 44.1% for Sillinger apart. He was worse away from Sillinger, who was no better away from him — he needed that pairing more than Sillinger did.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

72 unblocked shots in 2022-23, 4 of them goals. His median goal came from 41 feet. 11% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 43% from beyond forty.