Armchair Hockey Scout

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2024-25 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2024-25 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

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6

Kaedan Korczak

Vegas Golden Knights Defense

Twenty goals for and nine against, in 26 games.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2021-22VGK1000+100000—16:37
2022-23VGK10022-30000160.017:34
2023-24VGK26189+128000323.116:30
2024-25 so far—————————————
Career—3711011+108000482.116:47

This Season So Far

The 2024-25 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

26 games, 1 goal and 8 assists for 9 points, 8 penalty minutes, 16:30 a night and plus-12. He took 52.6 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 405 minutes, the 72nd percentile, and his ice went 20-9 against an expectation of 16.06-14.50.

Four goals of finishing above what the chances were worth and five and a half goals of goaltending above them. Twenty goals for and 9 against in 405 minutes is the best ratio of anybody on the club, and a plus-12 in 26 games is a very large number for a seventh defenceman.

The Finesse Game

43 attempts at a median of 51 feet with 74 per cent of them from beyond forty and 2 per cent from inside twenty, 30 of those on goal, converted at 3.1 per cent against a career 2.08 across 48 shots.

Ten career assists against one goal in 37 games. Eight assists in 26 games at sixteen and a half minutes a night is a better rate than any defenceman on this club outside the top three; the first pass is the tool and the shot is nowhere.

The Physical Game

He is 6-3 and 206 and took 8 penalty minutes.

Eight career penalty minutes in 37 games. He is large and defends through contact at the wall without ever having taken a penalty for it, which at 23 is either discipline or a small sample.

The Intangibles

Forty-first overall in 2019 by Vegas, three seasons, one organisation, and 11 points in 37 games.

A career plus-10 in 37 games. He is 23, he was a second-round pick by this club, and 26 games is the most anybody has given him in a season.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • transitiona strength· carries it out; gains the line under control

    “Eight assists in 26 games at sixteen and a half minutes a night is a better rate than any defenceman on this club outside the top three; the first pass is the tool and the shot is nowhere.”

  • defensively-responsiblea strength· comes back; can be trusted with a lead

    “He is large and defends through contact at the wall without ever having taken a penalty for it, which at 23 is either discipline or a small sample.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2023-24 · 405 minutes

Expected goals
52.6%
72nd pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
49.7%
53rd pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 20 for, 9 against. Expected: 16.1 and 14.5.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
80th
Numbers
72nd

The two rank him within 8 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 652 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 76 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2023-24 · 26 games

Top speed
21.7 mph
50th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 21.7

Bursts over 20 mph
0.58 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
2.43 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
89.1 mph
35th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 90.2

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2023-24 · 405 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2023-24

The club
VGK took 51.2% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 52.6% — 1.4 above the club he did it on.
The role
405 minutes at five-on-five — 12th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Brayden McNabb53.8%50.1%51.9%
Chandler Stephenson42.8%56.5%46.3%
Jonathan Marchessault63.4%48.6%49.2%

53.8% together, 50.1% for him apart and 51.9% for McNabb apart. He was worse away from McNabb, who was no better away from him — he needed that pairing more than McNabb did.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

43 unblocked shots in 2023-24, 1 of them goals. His median goal came from 44 feet. 2% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 74% from beyond forty.