Armchair Hockey Scout

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2024-25 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2024-25 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

46

Jonas Rondbjerg

Vegas Golden Knights Right Wing

Twenty games, no penalty minutes at all.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2021-22VGK3024604000306.710:01
2022-23VGK13011-54000150.010:10
2023-24VGK20123+20000254.011:17
2024-25 so far—————————————
Career—633710-38000704.310:27

This Season So Far

The 2024-25 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

20 games, 1 goal and 2 assists, no penalty minutes, 11:17 a night and plus-2. He took 41.7 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 207 minutes, the 7th percentile, and his ice went 3-2 against an expectation of 5.41-7.55.

Two goals of finishing below what the chances were worth and six goals of goaltending above them. Three goals for in 207 minutes of five-on-five hockey is the smallest total on the club and the sample is a quarter of a season.

The Finesse Game

28 attempts at a median of 20 feet with 50 per cent of them from inside twenty and 18 per cent from beyond forty, 24 of those on goal, converted at 4.0 per cent against a career 4.29 across 70 shots.

Three career goals and 7 assists in 63 games. Half his attempts came from inside twenty feet and 24 of the 28 reached the goaltender, which is a very accurate shooter with nothing at all to show for it.

The Physical Game

He is 6-2 and 206 and took no penalty minutes in 20 games.

Eight career penalty minutes in 63 games. He is a reasonable size and forechecks without ever fouling anybody; sixty-three games of NHL hockey for eight penalty minutes is either remarkable discipline or a fourth-liner who does not engage.

The Intangibles

Sixty-fifth overall in 2017 by Vegas, three seasons, one organisation, and 10 points in 63 games.

A career minus-3 in 63 games. He is Danish, he was a third-round pick, and he has played 63 NHL games in three seasons without ever holding a place for a full one.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • forechecks-aggressivelya strength· first man in, and on the puck

    “He is a reasonable size and forechecks without ever fouling anybody; sixty-three games of NHL hockey for eight penalty minutes is either remarkable discipline or a fourth-liner who does not engage.”

  • net-fronta strength· lives in the blue paint; the screens and the tips

    “Half his attempts came from inside twenty feet and 24 of the 28 reached the goaltender, which is a very accurate shooter with nothing at all to show for it.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2023-24 · 207 minutes

Expected goals
41.7%
8th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
46.7%
26th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 3 for, 2 against. Expected: 5.4 and 7.5.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
62nd
Numbers
8th

The report ranks him 54 points above where the numbers do. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.

Both bars are percentiles among the 652 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 72 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2023-24 · 20 games

Top speed
21.7 mph
28th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.1

Bursts over 20 mph
1.25 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
1.87 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
83.9 mph
33rd pct

one shot; the league's average best is 84.5

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2023-24 · 207 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2023-24

The club
VGK took 51.2% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 41.7% — 9.5 below the club he did it on.
The role
207 minutes at five-on-five — 1st percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Brett Howden52.2%35.4%44.9%
Brayden McNabb33.5%45.5%53.0%
Alec Martinez46.9%38.9%47.0%

52.2% together, 35.4% for him apart and 44.9% for Howden apart. Both were worse apart, so whatever the two of them had together was doing real work.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

28 unblocked shots in 2023-24, 1 of them goals. His median goal came from 8 feet. 50% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 18% from beyond forty.