Armchair Hockey Scout Beta

This is the 2025-26 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →

21

Mathieu Joseph

St. Louis Blues Right Wing

Fourteen points in 60 games at twelve minutes a night, from a winger whose ice outscored its chances by eleven.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2018-19TBL70131326+5260019513.711:22
2019-20TBL37437-2160003511.411:31
2020-21TBL5612719+3101025920.310:56
2021-22TBL/OTT69121830+12290238614.014:12
2022-23OTT5631518+536120664.514:01
2023-24OTT72112435-4510131248.916:28
2024-25STL6041014-628010695.811:54
2025-26 so far
Career4205990149+1319626953411.113:05

This Season So Far

The 2025-26 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

4 goals and 10 assists in 60 games — 14 points at 11:54 a night, minus-6, with a shorthanded goal and 28 penalty minutes.

53.2 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five, the 80th percentile, across 640 minutes. His ice went 34-27 against an expectation of 22.85-20.08 — eleven goals better than expected for and seven worse against, on a fourth line.

The Finesse Game

69 attempts at a median of 31 feet and 4 goals at a 5.8 per cent conversion, which is the lowest of any forward on the club. He does not finish.

10 assists in 60 games. The skating is the asset — he is among the faster forwards here and he is used to chase pucks down and to relieve pressure rather than to create anything.

The Physical Game

6-1 and 189 and light. He does not forecheck with force and he is not going to win a puck against a defenceman.

28 penalty minutes in 60 games. He is honest defensively, he kills penalties, and the physical game is not a part of the appeal.

The Intangibles

A fourth-round pick of Tampa Bay in 2015 and 420 games and 149 points across three organisations.

He is 28. He has scored 13 goals in a season once and has been a fourth-line penalty killer for most of the time since.

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2024-25 · 640 minutes

Expected goals
53.2%
81st pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
49.8%
50th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 34 for, 27 against. Expected: 22.9 and 20.1.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
17th
Numbers
81st

The numbers rank him 64 points above where the report does. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.

Both bars are percentiles among the 637 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 66 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Usual linemates

2024-25 · 640 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2024-25

The club
STL took 51.1% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 53.2% — 2.1 above the club he did it on.
The role
Fourth line, 640 minutes at five-on-five — 24th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Oskar Sundqvist57.2%50.8%49.3%
Zachary Bolduc59.3%49.6%49.9%
Ryan Suter51.6%54.3%47.4%

57.2% together, 50.8% for him apart and 49.3% for Sundqvist apart. Both were worse apart, so whatever the two of them had together was doing real work.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

105 unblocked shots in 2024-25, 4 of them goals. His median goal came from 25 feet. 31% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 20% from beyond forty.