Armchair Hockey Scout

Ask the book

2025-26 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2025-26 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

24

Mathew Dumba

Pittsburgh Penguins Defense

A former 50-point defenceman, 60 penalty minutes in 63 games, and a third organisation in three seasons.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2013-14MIN13112-52100128.312:27
2014-15MIN588816+1323202869.315:01
2015-16MIN81101626+1386031526.616:50
2016-17MIN76112334+15596011318.420:20
2017-18MIN82143650+15412041768.023:49
2018-19MIN32121022-5216019312.923:23
2019-20MIN6961824-7411011673.622:30
2020-21MIN5161521+146101896.722:17
2021-22MIN5772027+9471011166.023:06
2022-23MIN7941014-881002994.021:17
2023-24ARI/TBL764812-1888000864.719:44
2024-25DAL631910-560000571.815:18
2025-26 so far—————————————
Career—73784174258+65472601612646.720:04

This Season So Far

The 2025-26 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

1 goal and 9 assists in 63 games for Dallas — 10 points at 15:18 a night, minus-5, with 60 penalty minutes.

One goal on 57 shots at 1.8 per cent. He was a 50-point defenceman in Minnesota with a shot that scored 14 goals in a season, and there is nothing left of that in the record.

The Finesse Game

57 attempts and 1 goal. The point shot was the best thing about him for a decade and it has stopped producing entirely across three organisations.

9 assists in 63 games. The first pass is adequate and he is not asked to carry the puck, which he was for most of his career in Minnesota.

The Physical Game

6-0 and 191 and he hits considerably harder than that. He finishes checks, he defends the front of the net by force, and he is not intimidated by size.

60 penalty minutes in 63 games is a high rate for a third-pairing defenceman and a share of it is retaliation. He does not let anything go.

The Intangibles

Seventh overall in 2012 and 737 games and 258 points, most of it in Minnesota, where he played twenty minutes a night for eight seasons.

He is 31. Since leaving he has played for Arizona, Tampa Bay and Dallas, and Pittsburgh signed him in the summer as a right-shot third pair. The decline has been steep and it started with a torn pectoral at 26.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • punishinga strength· finishes checks; hurts people legally

    “He finishes checks, he defends the front of the net by force, and he is not intimidated by size.”

  • clears-the-creasea strength· moves grown men off the front of his net

    “He finishes checks, he defends the front of the net by force, and he is not intimidated by size.”

  • retaliatesa strength· answers the cross-check, and takes the second penalty

    “**60 penalty minutes in 63 games** is a high rate for a third-pairing defenceman and a share of it is retaliation.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2024-25 · 844 minutes

Expected goals
50.5%
58th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
52%
73rd pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 37 for, 38 against. Expected: 37.3 and 36.5.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
30th
Numbers
58th

The numbers rank him 28 points above where the report does. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.

Both bars are percentiles among the 637 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 69 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2024-25 · 63 games

Top speed
21.2 mph
31st pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 21.6

Bursts over 20 mph
0.24 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
2.14 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
97.8 mph
90th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 89.7

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2024-25 with DAL · 844 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2024-25

The club
DAL took 50.7% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 50.5% — 0.2 below the club he did it on.
The role
Third pair, 844 minutes at five-on-five — 40th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Lian Bichsel50.1%50.7%49.9%
Matt Duchene43.5%54.3%53.6%
Thomas Harley55.2%48.6%52.4%

50.1% together, 50.7% for him apart and 49.9% for Bichsel apart. Splitting them up moved neither man. Whatever is driving the share, it is not this pairing.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

108 unblocked shots in 2024-25, 1 of them goals. His median goal came from 47 feet. 6% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 81% from beyond forty.