Armchair Hockey Scout

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2025-26 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2025-26 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

This is the 2025-26 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →

19

Connor Dewar

Pittsburgh Penguins Center

A fourth-line penalty killer acquired at the deadline, 5-10 and 187, with 46 per cent of his attempts from inside 20 feet.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2021-22MIN35246-425001444.59:54
2022-23MIN8161218-550030876.910:58
2023-24MIN/TOR7411819-8280107714.311:39
2024-25TOR/PIT484610-314000557.311:33
2025-26 so far—————————————
Career—238233053-201170412638.811:09

This Season So Far

The 2025-26 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

4 goals and 6 assists in 48 games across Toronto and Pittsburgh — 10 points at 11:33 a night, minus-3, with 14 penalty minutes.

44.4 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five, the 16th percentile, across 446 minutes. His ice went 10-15 against an expectation of 12.71-15.90 — a fourth line that scored more than its chances and conceded more too.

The Finesse Game

55 attempts at a median of 26 feet with 46 per cent from inside 20, and 4 goals at a 7.3 per cent conversion. He gets to the paint and does not finish, which is the fourth-line bargain.

6 assists in 48 games. There is no offensive game to describe and he has never had one — 53 points in 238 NHL games.

The Physical Game

5-10 and 187 and he plays a hard, honest, small man’s game. He forechecks first, he blocks shots, and he is on the ice for the last two minutes of a one-goal lead.

14 penalty minutes in 48 games. The discipline is why he kills penalties and the club has been short of forwards who can.

The Intangibles

A third-round pick of Minnesota in 2018, 238 NHL games in, and traded twice in fourteen months.

He is 26. He missed part of the season to injury, and a fourth-line penalty killer at league minimum is a useful thing on a club with this much money committed to men over 35.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • hard-minutes· is started in his own end, against the other club's best

    32% of his end-zone starts in the attacking end, 6th percentile among forwards

    Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.66) · 50% keep it

  • forechecks-aggressivelya strength· first man in, and on the puck

    “He forechecks first, he blocks shots, and he is on the ice for the last two minutes of a one-goal lead.”

  • shot-blockera strength· gets in front of it

    “He forechecks first, he blocks shots, and he is on the ice for the last two minutes of a one-goal lead.”

  • defensively-responsiblea strength· comes back; can be trusted with a lead

    “He forechecks first, he blocks shots, and he is on the ice for the last two minutes of a one-goal lead.”

  • penalty-killera strength· trusted a man short

    “The discipline is why he kills penalties and the club has been short of forwards who can.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2024-25 · 446 minutes

Expected goals
44.4%
14th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
45.5%
15th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 10 for, 15 against. Expected: 12.7 and 15.9.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
30th
Numbers
14th

The two rank him within 16 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 637 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 69 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2024-25 · 48 games

Top speed
22.1 mph
41st pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.2

Bursts over 20 mph
1.15 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
1.84 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
81.3 mph
26th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 83.9

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2024-25 with TOR · 268 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2024-25

The club
PIT took 49.0% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 44.4% — 4.6 below the club he did it on.
The role
446 minutes at five-on-five — 13th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Steven Lorentz55.9%38.2%49.9%
Conor Timmins55.6%40.1%52.1%
David Kampf38.7%45.9%46.3%

55.9% together, 38.2% for him apart and 49.9% for Lorentz apart. Both were worse apart, so whatever the two of them had together was doing real work.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

70 unblocked shots in 2024-25, 4 of them goals. His median goal came from 7 feet. 46% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 21% from beyond forty.