Armchair Hockey Scout

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2023-24 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2023-24 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

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11

Travis Konecny

Philadelphia Flyers Right Wing

Thirty-one goals in sixty games at five-foot-ten, above the league rate from close range and from the mid-slot.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2016-17PHI70111728-2493001338.314:05
2017-18PHI81242347+174610617713.614:54
2018-19PHI82242549-44040318213.215:16
2019-20PHI66243761-12850314117.016:48
2020-21PHI50112334-52640110011.015:54
2021-22PHI79163652-23773032207.317:37
2022-23PHI60313061-127753519116.220:07
2023-24 so far—————————————
Career—488141191332-3034325321114412.316:17

This Season So Far

The 2023-24 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

31 goals and 30 assists in 60 games — 61 points — at 20:07 a night. Minus-12, 191 shots at 16.2 per cent, five on the power play, three shorthanded, five game-winners, 77 penalty minutes.

Thirty-one goals in sixty games is a forty-two-goal pace and the best rate of a seven-season career.

46.9 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five, the 33rd percentile, with his ice at 37-43 against an expectation of 36.46-41.3 across 869 minutes — which is a modest share on a club that finished twenty-third in chances, and roughly what the chances said.

He started 51.3 per cent of his shifts in the attacking zone, the 53rd percentile.

Seven seasons, 488 games, 332 points, all of them here.

The Finesse Game

191 shots at a median of 27 feet, and the distance chart is the best on the club by a distance.

Inside twenty feet: 66 shots on goal and 17 goals — 25.76 per cent, against a league forward rate of 17.71. From twenty to forty: 72 shots and 12 goals — 16.67 per cent, against a league rate of 11.05. Beyond forty: 51 shots and 2 goals.

Half again the league’s rate from close and half again from the mid-slot, on real volume from both. He is one of forty-four forwards in the league who beat the positional rate from both of those bands on fifty or more shots on goal in each, and on a team that scored 222 goals — twenty-ninth in the league — he is most of what worked.

166 wrist shots out of 272 tracked attempts and only 14 slap. 90.5 mph at the 47th percentile, on fourteen slap shots, so the number is about selection.

The release is the asset. He shoots off the wrong foot and out of the turn, which is why a 5-10 winger gets a hundred and thirty-eight shots away from inside forty feet.

The Physical Game

5-10 and 192 pounds, with 77 penalty minutes in sixty games.

2.3 bursts above twenty miles an hour a game, the 90th percentile; 3.19 miles a game, the 90th. Top speed 22.5 mph, the 60th.

High in sprints and in ground covered from ordinary top-end speed, which describes a player who is always moving and rarely in a straight line.

He forechecks into contact, agitates, and takes and gives more punishment than a man his size should. 343 career penalty minutes from a scoring winger is the record of somebody who has never once got out of the way.

He kills penalties, and the three shorthanded goals are the tell: he is on the first unit and he is the one who leaves it with the puck.

Sixty games is the fewest he has played in a full season, and at 192 pounds the availability is the standing risk in this file.

The Intangibles

Twenty-fourth overall in 2015, and 488 games in one uniform.

141 goals and 191 assists, with the 61 points in sixty games the best rate of the seven seasons and the 24 goals in each of 2017-18, 2018-19 and 2019-20 the consistent floor underneath it.

He is twenty-six on the worst offensive club in the conference. The measurements say he is a genuinely good top-line winger and the surrounding roster says nobody will find that out for a while.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • agitatora strength· gets under the skin; draws the retaliation

    “He forechecks into contact, agitates, and takes and gives more punishment than a man his size should.”

  • transitiona strength· carries it out; gains the line under control

    “High in sprints and in ground covered from ordinary top-end speed, which describes a player who is always moving and rarely in a straight line.”

  • penalty-killera strength· trusted a man short

    “He kills penalties, and the three shorthanded goals are the tell: he is on the first unit and he is the one who leaves it with the puck.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2022-23 · 869 minutes

Expected goals
46.9%
32nd pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
49.5%
48th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 37 for, 43 against. Expected: 36.5 and 41.3.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
95th
Numbers
32nd

The report ranks him 63 points above where the numbers do. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.

Both bars are percentiles among the 638 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 80 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2022-23 · 60 games

Top speed
22.5 mph
66th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.0

Bursts over 20 mph
2.25 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
3.19 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
90.5 mph
69th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 84.9

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2022-23 · 869 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2022-23

The club
PHI took 47.2% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 46.9% — 0.3 below the club he did it on.
The role
First line, 869 minutes at five-on-five — 46th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Joel Farabee43.4%49.9%46.8%
Ivan Provorov46.0%47.6%45.8%
Noah Cates47.5%46.5%48.0%

43.4% together, 49.9% for him apart and 46.8% for Farabee apart. Both were better apart than together — the pairing was doing neither of them any favours.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

269 unblocked shots in 2022-23, 31 of them goals. His median goal came from 19 feet. 33% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 28% from beyond forty.