Armchair Hockey Scout

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2023-24 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2023-24 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

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6

Travis Sanheim

Philadelphia Flyers Defense

Fourteen hundred five-on-five minutes at the 25th percentile of chance share, and one goal on sixty-one long shots.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2017-18PHI492810-620000722.815:35
2018-19PHI8292635-4222021217.419:34
2019-20PHI6981725+4320001107.320:09
2020-21PHI5531215-22230011003.021:53
2021-22PHI8072431+9340011235.722:58
2022-23PHI8171623-5400111116.320:24
2023-24 so far—————————————
Career—41636103139-241712156375.720:19

This Season So Far

The 2023-24 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

7 goals and 16 assists in 81 games — 23 points — at 20:24 a night, across 1,420 five-on-five minutes, the most of any Flyer. Minus-5, 111 shots, one shorthanded goal, 40 penalty minutes.

45.7 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five, the 25th percentile, with his ice at 46-50 against an expectation of 52.75-62.66 — seven goals short at the attacking end and twelve and a half better at the defensive, which is Carter Hart.

He started 46.9 per cent of his shifts in the attacking zone, the 32nd percentile: 377 attacking draws against 426.

Six seasons, 416 games, 139 points, a career minus-24, all of it here.

The Finesse Game

111 shots at a median of 46 feet, and seven goals.

Beyond forty feet: 61 shots on goal and 1 goal — 1.64 per cent, half the league rate for defencemen of 3.17. From twenty to forty: 29 shots and 3 goals, 10.34 per cent, above the positional rate. Inside twenty: 18 shots and 3 goals.

Six of his seven goals came from inside forty feet, and the sixty-one from beyond it produced one. That is a defenceman who should stop shooting from the blue line, and the slap count says he already mostly has: 22 slap shots out of 152 tracked attempts, a 14 per cent share.

93.7 mph at the 68th percentile.

103 career assists against 36 goals. The outlet is the offensive file and sixteen assists from twenty minutes a night is a modest return on it.

The Physical Game

6-4 and 222, with 40 penalty minutes.

Top speed 22.6 mph, the 66th percentile; 0.9 bursts a game, the 47th; 3.00 miles a game, the 80th.

Above the league in mileage and speed, from a 6-4 defenceman — a genuinely good athletic profile for the position, and it makes the chance share harder to explain rather than easier.

He closes gaps with his feet, defends the rush well, and finishes checks without being punishing.

What the 25th-percentile share says is that the play breaks down after the rush is defended, and 1,420 minutes is far too many for that to be a sample problem. This is the most-used defenceman on a club that finished twenty-third in chances and he is a large part of why.

The Intangibles

Seventeenth overall in 2014, and 416 games without ever having played anywhere else.

The point totals read 10, 35, 25, 15, 31 and 23, on a club that has finished outside the playoffs for most of them.

He is twenty-seven, signed long, and playing the most minutes on the team. The skating and the frame are top-pair equipment; the record of what happens on his ice has been below the league average for four straight seasons, and at some point that stops being the roster.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed
  • ordinaryraised, and called ordinary
  • he lacks itraised, and he does not have it

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • slot-man· shoots from where goals are scored

    23.5% of his attempts in the slot, 95th percentile among defencemen

    Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.69) · 44% keep it

  • durable· was available

    81 of 82 games

    Season to season, this measure repeats weakly (0.32) · 53% keep it

  • transitiona strength· carries it out; gains the line under control

    “He closes gaps with his feet, defends the rush well, and finishes checks without being punishing.”

  • defensively-responsiblehe lacks it· comes back; can be trusted with a lead

    “What the 25th-percentile share says is that the play breaks down after the rush is defended, and 1,420 minutes is far too many for that to be a sample problem.”

  • playmakerpresent and ordinary· passes up the shot a scorer takes

    “The outlet is the offensive file and sixteen assists from twenty minutes a night is a modest return on it.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2022-23 · 1,420 minutes

Expected goals
45.7%
25th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
46.9%
29th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 46 for, 50 against. Expected: 52.8 and 62.7.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
48th
Numbers
25th

The report ranks him 23 points above where the numbers do. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.

Both bars are percentiles among the 638 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 65 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2022-23 · 81 games

Top speed
22.6 mph
86th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 21.5

Bursts over 20 mph
0.85 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
3.00 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
93.7 mph
59th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 90.0

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2022-23 · 1420 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2022-23

The club
PHI took 47.2% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 45.7% — 1.5 below the club he did it on.
The role
First pair, 1,420 minutes at five-on-five — 94th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Joel Farabee41.4%47.6%48.0%
Owen Tippett49.4%44.1%49.3%
Rasmus Ristolainen46.8%45.3%49.7%

41.4% together, 47.6% for him apart and 48.0% for Farabee apart. Both were better apart than together — the pairing was doing neither of them any favours.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

149 unblocked shots in 2022-23, 7 of them goals. His median goal came from 24 feet. 18% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 55% from beyond forty.