Armchair Hockey Scout

Ask the book

2026-27 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2026-27 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

Simon Nemec

Photo by Wheatzilopochtli, CC BY-SA 4.0

Simon Nemec

Calgary Flames Defense #71

The second pick in 2022, on his second club, still waiting to be what that meant.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2023-24NJD6031619-733001734.119:52
2024-25NJD27224-1014001267.714:59
2025-26NJD68111526-112610310110.919:40
2026-27 so far—————————————
Career—155163349-28731052008.018:56

This Season So Far

The 2026-27 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

11 goals and 15 assists in 68 games — 26 points, minus-11, at 19:40 a night. His 5-on-5 work was done in New Jersey.

The Finesse Game

The skating and the first pass are legitimate. He retrieves under pressure without panicking and he can carry the puck out when the outlet is not there, which is the skill the 2nd overall pick was taken for.

11 goals is a surprising number and worth reading carefully: 160 unblocked attempts from a median of 48 feet with only 9 per cent inside 20. He is scoring from the point at a rate that will not repeat, the same trick Samuelsson pulled in Buffalo.

The Physical Game

6-1, 190, and he defends with position rather than force. 26 penalty minutes in 68 games of top-4 work.

He is not soft, but he is not going to win a net-front battle against a heavy winger, and at his age that is still the part most likely to improve.

The Intangibles

The results were unremarkable rather than bad: 48.7 per cent of the expected goals, 43rd percentile, and 49.7 per cent of the shot attempts, 54th, across 1,210 minutes. On a club that made the playoffs, that is a fair third season for a 21-year-old defenceman.

He is 22 and arrives in Calgary as the most valuable piece on a blue line that badly needs one. The pedigree says he should be more than an average top-4 defenceman. 3 seasons in, average is what the numbers say, and there is still plenty of time for that to be wrong.

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2025-26 · 1,210 minutes

Expected goals
48.7%
44th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
49.7%
54th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 47 for, 63 against. Expected: 49.8 and 52.5.

The eye and the numbers

Sighted
Report
33rd
Numbers
44th

The two rank him within 11 points of one another. It was written with these numbers on screen, so the agreement is not corroboration — the arithmetic is on both sides of it.

Both bars are percentiles among the 656 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 69 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2025-26 · 68 games

Top speed
21.4 mph
39th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 21.6

Bursts over 20 mph
0.26 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
2.86 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
91.5 mph
55th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 88.9

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Recent form

Last 20 appearances, 2025-26, oldest first

3

points in his last 10 games — 1 goals, 2 assists, 16 shots

Each bar is one game by points. Filled bars are games he scored in.

Usual linemates

2025-26 with NJD · 1210 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2025-26

The club
NJD took 50.4% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 48.7% — 1.7 below the club he did it on.
The role
Second pair, 1,210 minutes at five-on-five — 82nd percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Brenden Dillon50.1%47.6%50.5%
Timo Meier53.2%46.6%52.7%
Dawson Mercer52.8%47.0%51.8%

50.1% together, 47.6% for him apart and 50.5% for Dillon apart. Splitting them up moved neither man. Whatever is driving the share, it is not this pairing.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

160 unblocked shots in 2025-26, 12 of them goals. His median goal came from 30 feet. 9% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 66% from beyond forty.