Armchair Hockey Scout

Ask the book

2026-27 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2026-27 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

Tomas Hertl

Photo by Jenn G from Seattle, WA, CC BY-SA 2.0

Tomas Hertl

Vegas Golden Knights Center #48

873 games, 13 power-play goals, and minus 17.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2013-14SJS37151025+1143039815.315:20
2014-15SJS82131831-5163041459.014:33
2015-16SJS81212546+162630320210.415:58
2016-17SJS49101222-81410410010.017:13
2017-18SJS79222446-24161517512.618:06
2018-19SJS77353974+518111517619.919:01
2019-20SJS48162036-181622111713.718:27
2020-21SJS50192443+12741211217.019:08
2021-22SJS82303464-93060620514.619:56
2022-23SJS79224163-364260118312.019:17
2023-24SJS/VGK54172138-282261212413.720:29
2024-25VGK73322961-320140317718.117:07
2025-26VGK82243458-1739130420211.917:02
2026-27 so far—————————————
Career—873276331607-9331578643201613.717:48

This Season So Far

The 2026-27 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

24 goals and 34 assists in all 82 games — 58 points, minus-17, at 17:02 a night with 13 power-play goals and 39 penalty minutes.

His 873rd career game and his 607th point.

The Finesse Game

The shot chart is excellent. 313 unblocked attempts with 61 per cent from inside 20 feet and a median of 17, and only 11 per cent from beyond 40.

23 goals out of that ice, and 13 of his 24 came on a power play where he sets up in the slot and cannot be moved.

34 assists is a fair rate.

The Physical Game

6-3 and 220 pounds, and he plays a heavy, useful game — he protects the puck below the goal line, wins the front of the net, and takes a beating in the crease. 39 penalty minutes.

2 knee reconstructions are behind him and the skating never fully came back.

The Intangibles

55.0 per cent of the expected goals, 87th percentile, and 56.2 per cent of the shot attempts, 93rd — the best attempt share on the club — across 1,061 minutes, with the chances 45.5 to 37.2 in his favour and the goals 40-52.

And a minus-17, on a club where every regular forward finished above the 83rd percentile in chance share. That number is short-handed ice and empty nets, and it describes nothing that happened at 5-on-5.

4 points in his last 10. He is 32, and this is a genuinely good second-line centre with a hockey card that says otherwise.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • slot-man· shoots from where goals are scored

    71.2% of his attempts in the slot, 97th percentile among forwards

    Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.69) · 44% keep it

  • clutch· scored his goals when the game was still live

    7 of his 24 goals late or in overtime, 97th percentile among forwards

    Season to season, this measure barely repeats (0.06) · 10% keep it

  • durable· was available

    82 of 82 games

    Season to season, this measure repeats weakly (0.32) · 53% keep it

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2025-26 · 1,061 minutes

Expected goals
55%
88th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
56.2%
94th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 40 for, 52 against. Expected: 45.5 and 37.2.

The eye and the numbers

Sighted
Report
89th
Numbers
88th

The two rank him within 1 points of one another. It was written with these numbers on screen, so the agreement is not corroboration — the arithmetic is on both sides of it.

Both bars are percentiles among the 656 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 80 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2025-26 · 82 games

Top speed
22.0 mph
37th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.2

Bursts over 20 mph
0.73 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
2.55 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
89.5 mph
81st pct

one shot; the league's average best is 83.6

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Recent form

Last 20 appearances, 2025-26, oldest first

4

points in his last 10 games — 0 goals, 4 assists, 27 shots

Each bar is one game by points. Filled bars are games he scored in.

Usual linemates

2025-26 · 1046 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2025-26

The club
VGK took 53.4% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 55.0% — 1.6 above the club he did it on.
The role
First line, 1,061 minutes at five-on-five — 68th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Pavel Dorofeyev58.1%51.3%53.0%
Noah Hanifin55.9%54.5%54.5%
Kaedan Korczak56.7%54.2%54.7%

58.1% together, 51.3% for him apart and 53.0% for Dorofeyev apart. Both were worse apart, so whatever the two of them had together was doing real work.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

313 unblocked shots in 2025-26, 23 of them goals. His median goal came from 15 feet. 61% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 11% from beyond forty.