Armchair Hockey Scout

Ask the book

2025-26 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2025-26 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

This is the 2025-26 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →

22

Brett Pesce

New Jersey Devils Defense

A 52.3 per cent chance share in the club's hardest defensive minutes, and 17 points.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2015-16CAR6941216-716101854.718:46
2016-17CAR8221820+23200001091.821:12
2017-18CAR6531619-618001883.420:54
2018-19CAR7372229+3524002987.120:29
2019-20CAR6141418+7270001043.921:53
2020-21CAR5542125+1420100894.522:48
2021-22CAR7072128+5391031484.721:42
2022-23CAR8252530+11431021443.522:01
2023-24CAR7031013+10200011072.820:17
2024-25NJD7231417-529010993.021:19
2025-26 so far—————————————
Career—69942173215+87256411010713.921:07

This Season So Far

The 2025-26 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

3 goals and 14 assists in 72 games for 17 points, minus-5, on 21:19 a night — the heaviest workload on the blue line.

52.3 per cent at five-on-five, the 72nd percentile, over 1,256 minutes, taking the hardest defensive assignment on the club. His on-ice goals were 41-44 against an expected 50.6-46.3.

The Finesse Game

Almost none and none required. 99 shots and 3 goals with 73 per cent from beyond 40 feet, and 14 assists at 21 minutes a night is a low return.

The first pass is quick and safe and he does not stall a breakout. There is no offensive projection and never has been.

The Physical Game

6-3 and 206, and he defends with position and an active stick rather than with force. He boxes out in front of his own net and blocks shots.

29 penalty minutes over 72 games is disciplined. The durability has been mixed — he has cleared 75 games three times in ten seasons.

The Intangibles

A third-round pick, nine seasons in Carolina in a shutdown role, and a free-agent contract here to do the same thing.

At 31 the projection is unchanged: a genuinely good defensive defenceman who plays 21 minutes and produces nothing. On a blue line with two Hughes-style puck-movers, that is exactly the right complement.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed
  • he lacks itraised, and he does not have it

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • defends-with-reacha strength· takes the puck before the contact happens

    “6-3 and 206, and he defends with position and an active stick rather than with force.”

  • punishinghe lacks it· finishes checks; hurts people legally

    “6-3 and 206, and he defends with position and an active stick rather than with force.”

  • clears-the-creasea strength· moves grown men off the front of his net

    “He boxes out in front of his own net and blocks shots.”

  • shot-blockera strength· gets in front of it

    “He boxes out in front of his own net and blocks shots.”

  • defensively-responsiblea strength· comes back; can be trusted with a lead

    “At 31 the projection is unchanged: a genuinely good defensive defenceman who plays 21 minutes and produces nothing.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2024-25 · 1,256 minutes

Expected goals
52.3%
72nd pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
51.4%
68th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 41 for, 44 against. Expected: 50.6 and 46.3.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
60th
Numbers
72nd

The two rank him within 12 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 637 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 74 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2024-25 · 72 games

Top speed
21.3 mph
35th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 21.6

Bursts over 20 mph
0.25 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
2.92 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
85.9 mph
22nd pct

one shot; the league's average best is 89.7

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2024-25 · 1256 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2024-25

The club
NJD took 50.7% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 52.3% — 1.6 above the club he did it on.
The role
First pair, 1,256 minutes at five-on-five — 89th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Luke Hughes53.1%50.0%45.9%
Timo Meier52.7%52.0%55.1%
Nico Hischier52.5%52.1%54.5%

53.1% together, 50.0% for him apart and 45.9% for Hughes apart. Both were worse apart, so whatever the two of them had together was doing real work.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

128 unblocked shots in 2024-25, 3 of them goals. His median goal came from 19 feet. 5% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 73% from beyond forty.