Armchair Hockey Scout Beta

This is the 2025-26 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →

81

Ondrej Palat

New Jersey Devils Left Wing

28 points at 34 on a 15.6 per cent rate, in the fourth year of a contract that has not worked.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2012-13TBL14224+500011612.511:44
2013-14TBL81233659+322032316513.918:02
2014-15TBL75164763+312431513911.517:26
2015-16TBL62162440+102012411713.717:55
2016-17TBL75173552+83950316210.519:07
2017-18TBL56112435+16641010910.117:00
2018-19TBL6482634+4202011008.014:53
2019-20TBL69172441+252241212813.316:11
2020-21TBL55153146+12670611113.517:27
2021-22TBL77183149+152010514312.616:30
2022-23NJD4981523+561017910.115:32
2023-24NJD71112031-93710010810.215:39
2024-25NJD77151328-5122139615.613:45
2025-26 so far
Career825177328505+13825234834147312.016:33

This Season So Far

The 2025-26 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

15 goals and 13 assists in 77 games for 28 points, minus-5, on 13:45 a night with a shorthanded goal.

49.8 per cent at five-on-five, the 51st percentile. 96 shots in 77 games is a very low volume and 15.6 per cent conversion is above his career rate.

The Finesse Game

The hockey sense is what remains and it is still good. He arrives in the right place, makes the simple play quickly, and is trusted defensively in every situation.

96 shots and 13 assists is not enough production for a top-nine forward, and the skating has thinned to the point where he no longer separates from anybody. 41 per cent of his attempts come from inside 20 feet, so the locations are right and the volume is not.

The Physical Game

6 feet and 194, and he is willing without being heavy. He forechecks honestly and goes to the net front on the power play.

12 penalty minutes over 77 games. The durability has been fine here after a run of interrupted seasons in Tampa.

The Intangibles

Two Cups, a decade in Tampa as the least-discussed member of a great forward group, and a five-year free-agent contract signed at 31.

At 34 the projection is 25 points and reliable defensive work. The contract has one of the largest gaps between price and production on any roster in this edition.

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2024-25 · 918 minutes

Expected goals
49.8%
52nd pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
49.4%
45th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 38 for, 30 against. Expected: 38.4 and 38.7.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
58th
Numbers
52nd

The two rank him within 6 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 357 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 74 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Usual linemates

2024-25 · 918 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2024-25

The club
NJD took 50.7% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 49.8% — 0.9 below the club he did it on.
The role
Second line, 918 minutes at five-on-five — 48th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Jack Hughes53.8%40.6%61.3%
Jesper Bratt53.0%43.2%50.9%
Brenden Dillon49.0%50.4%50.1%

53.8% together, 40.6% for him apart and 61.3% for Hughes apart. He was the one being carried: the share went with Hughes and did not follow him.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

147 unblocked shots in 2024-25, 15 of them goals. His median goal came from 14 feet. 41% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 18% from beyond forty.