Buffalo Sabres

What the Quant Says

246 goals, 22nd in the league, over a chance-creation rate that was 15th at 2.582 expected goals per 60 at even strength. The five-on-five half of this attack is fine. The goals column is not.

At five-on-five the club scored 174 goals against an expectation of 167.8 — a finishing surplus of 6.2 goals, 13th in the league. So the shortfall is not finishing either, and it is not chance creation. It is the power play, and it has its own section.

Tage Thompson scored 29 goals in 71 games on 246 shots. JJ Peterka scored 28 at 22 on 226 shots. Alex Tuch had 59 points with 7 game-winners. Rasmus Dahlin had 59 from the blue line. Dylan Cozens had 47 and Zach Benson 30 at 19.

Thompson's 29 is the number to sit with. He scored 47 two seasons before this one, and 29 in 71 games is not a collapse so much as a return to the shooter he had been.

What the Scout Says

A 6-6 centre with a shot from range, a nineteen-year-old who plays in the paint, and a distributor problem.

Tage Thompson takes 246 attempts at a median of 33 feet with 28 per cent from beyond 40 and 20 per cent from inside 20, converting at 11.79 per cent. The release at 6-6 comes from further out than anybody expects and it is genuinely heavy, and 132 goals in 372 career games is a real shooter.

JJ Peterka takes 226 attempts at a median of 29 feet with 30 per cent inside 20 and converted 12.39 per cent at 22. Alex Tuch shoots from a median of 30 with 33 per cent inside 20 and threw 37 assists at 6-4.

Zach Benson takes 58 per cent of his attempts from inside 20 feet at a median of 16 — the most net-front profile on this roster, from a nineteen-year-old who is 5-10 and 177 pounds. Ryan McLeod was added and takes 47 per cent from inside 20 at a median of 21.

Rasmus Dahlin's 39 assists are the largest single source of offence on the club, which on a roster with this many forwards is a sentence worth stopping at.

What the Quant Says

244 goals against, 11th in the league, over an even-strength suppression rate of 2.696 expected goals against per 60, which is 25th. Fourteen places of daylight, and the daylight is the crease.

At five-on-five the club conceded 159 goals against an expectation of 175.4 — sixteen fewer than the chances predicted.

Rasmus Dahlin played 25:25 a night at 24 and took 51.3 per cent of the chances, and his ice went 64-64 against an expectation of 73.07-69.26 — thirteen goals of scoring missing on the ice of the man who scored 59 points himself. Owen Power played 22:55 at 21 and was plus-8. Bowen Byram scored 11 goals and took 47.0 per cent of the chances.

Connor Clifton's ice went 48-42 against an expectation of 43.29-49.33 — five goals above expectation at one end and seven fewer conceded than the chances called for at the other, on a third pairing. Twelve goals of help is not a number that comes back.

Mattias Samuelsson played 20:30 a night in only 41 games, and the blue line's depth is the reason that mattered less than it should have.

What the Scout Says

Two first-overall picks, a fourth-overall pick behind them, and an average rate of chances allowed.

Rasmus Dahlin carries the puck out of his own zone rather than passing it out, and 25:25 a night with 20 goals and 39 assists at 24 is a genuine number-one defenceman. He walks the line and holds the puck until a forechecker commits. He does not clear his crease by force and he never has — 324 penalty minutes in 436 games is a low rate for the ice he takes.

Owen Power is 6-6 and defends the rush with reach almost nobody gets around, and the first pass is early and correct. Fifty-nine assists in 163 career games from a defenceman who has never taken 30 penalty minutes in a season.

Bowen Byram scored 11 goals and skates as well as anybody on this blue line, and he arrived at the deadline. Mattias Samuelsson is 6-4 and 229 and clears the front of his own net by force, and he played 41 games.

Connor Clifton is the edge — 88 penalty minutes, an agitator who finishes checks well above his 196 pounds. Henri Jokiharju takes 83 per cent of his own attempts from beyond 40 feet and has 16 goals in 347 games.

What the Quant Says

The club's goaltending came in 16.4 goals better than the chances faced, 6th in the league, behind a defence that was 25th at suppressing them. That is the right way round and it was worth a great deal.

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen went 27-22-4 with a .9102, a 2.57 average and 5 shutouts in 54 games, facing 1,470 shots. He is 25, he is 6-5 and 223, and it was the first season of his career in which he was given the crease.

Devon Levi went 10-8-2 with an .8994 in 23 games at 22, in his second partial season, and he was a seventh-round pick.

A club that gets sixteen goals from its goaltending and finishes twenty-second in the league has a problem somewhere else, and that is the honest way to read this page.

What the Scout Says

A 6-5 goaltender given the crease for the first time at 25, and a seventh-round pick behind him.

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen is 6-5 and 223 and plays deep and large. He sets at the top of the crease, the frame takes the top of the net away without him having to move for it, and the rebound control is good. The lateral recovery is the cost of the style and it is a real one — he is beaten across the slot more than a smaller goaltender would be.

A .9102 with 5 shutouts in 54 games, behind the 25th-ranked chance suppression in the league, is a genuine season. He had a career .9037 across 100 games coming into it.

Devon Levi is 6-0 and 192 and small for the modern position, which means the technique has to be exact. He plays aggressively, meeting the shooter at the top of the crease, and the puck-handling is good. An .8994 in 23 games at 22 is the second season of a career that began with an enormous college reputation.

He was 212th overall in 2020 — a seventh-round pick, taken by Florida and traded here — and that is the most interesting fact in this section.

What the Quant Says

29th in the league at 5.922 expected goals per 60, over 4:47 a night, the eighth-fewest power-play minutes in hockey. Bad at it, and not given much of it.

This is the season. A club that was 16th in shot attempts at five-on-five, 13th in finishing and 6th in goaltending finished twenty-second, and the power play is where the missing points are.

Tage Thompson scored 9 power-play goals, Rasmus Dahlin 6, Jason Zucker 5 before arriving here, JJ Peterka 3, Dylan Cozens 2, Alex Tuch 2, Jordan Greenway 1 and Jack Quinn 1.

The pieces look like they should work. Thompson is 6-6 and shoots from a median of 33 feet, Dahlin walks the line at 25:25 a night, Tuch is 6-4 and 219 and can stand in front, and Peterka takes 30 per cent of his attempts from inside 20. The rate says they do not.

Twenty-ninth with this personnel is a coaching and construction failure rather than a personnel one, and it is the most correctable number on the page.

What the Scout Says

A unit with every piece it should need and the twenty-ninth rate in the league.

Rasmus Dahlin walks the line and holds the puck until a killing box commits, and he scored 6 a man up with 39 assists on the season. Tage Thompson is 6-6 and shoots from a median of 33 feet with a release that is heavy from range, and he scored 9.

Alex Tuch is 6-4 and 219 and can stand in the blue paint. JJ Peterka finds open ice and takes 30 per cent of his attempts from inside 20. Jason Zucker arrives having scored 5 a man up.

Jack Quinn is the one man here who can make a pass a penalty kill does not expect, and he played 27 games.

There is a shooter, a screen, a quarterback and a finisher on this list. Twenty-ninth in the league with those four is a construction problem, not a talent one.

What the Quant Says

23rd in the league at 7.633 expected goals against per 60, over 4:54 a game — the 19th-heaviest workload. Below average at it, and average in how much of it there is.

Dylan Cozens scored 3 shorthanded goals, Tage Thompson 2 and Alex Tuch 1 — six shorthanded goals from the top of the roster is a real number for a unit ranked 23rd, and it says the aggression is there.

The fouling is spread. Connor Clifton took 88 penalty minutes in 79 games, Peyton Krebs 67 in 80, Rasmus Dahlin 66 in 81, Jordan Greenway 64 in 67 and Tage Thompson 43 in 71. Nobody is out of control and the total is unremarkable.

Beck Malenstyn was added at 6-3 and 209 on 25 penalty minutes in 81 games in Washington, and Sam Lafferty arrived with 5 career shorthanded goals. Both are the right kind of addition for the phase.

Twenty-third is not good and it is also not what cost this club a playoff place.

What the Scout Says

Six shorthanded goals from the top of the roster, and an average unit underneath.

Dylan Cozens scored 3 shorthanded goals and reads the pass before it is made; Tage Thompson scored 2 at 6-6, which is a genuine problem for a power play when a man that size closes on a puck carrier; Alex Tuch scored 1.

Owen Power and Henri Jokiharju take the defensive pair — both defend with reach and position rather than by punishing anybody, and Jokiharju took 24 penalty minutes in 74 games. Mattias Samuelsson blocks shots at 6-4 and 229.

Beck Malenstyn was added on 25 penalty minutes in 81 games and Sam Lafferty on 5 career shorthanded goals, and both are the right sort of forward for the phase.

The discipline is unremarkable and so is the result. Twenty-third at an average workload is the least of what is wrong here.