Armchair Hockey Scout Beta

This is the 2024-25 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →

24

Dylan Cozens

Buffalo Sabres Center

Sixty-eight points at twenty-two, forty-seven at twenty-three, and three shorthanded goals.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2020-21BUF414913-1516100626.514:21
2021-22BUF79132538-19552011608.115:54
2022-23BUF81313768-34152121114.716:30
2023-24BUF79182947-4422312009.017:14
2024-25 so far
Career28066100166-41154105363310.416:13

This Season So Far

The 2024-25 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

18 goals and 29 assists in 79 games — 47 points at 17:14 a night, minus-4, with 2 power-play goals, 3 shorthanded goals and 1 game-winner on 200 shots, converting at 9.0 per cent, and 42 penalty minutes.

He had 68 points the season before this one. Two hundred shots at 9.0 per cent is the difference: the volume held and the conversion did not.

48.7 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 1,024 minutes, the 42nd percentile. His ice went 34-41 against an expectation of 44.21-46.56 — ten goals of scoring missing.

The Finesse Game

200 attempts at a median of 29 feet, with 32 per cent from inside 20 and 24 per cent from beyond 40, converting at 9.0 per cent against a career 10.43.

He takes the puck to the middle of the ice and he shoots from there, and two hundred attempts from a second-line centre is real volume. The release is heavy without being quick.

29 assists and 100 in 280 career games. He drives play through the neutral zone with the puck on his stick rather than by chipping it in, which is the half of his game that did not decline.

The Physical Game

6-3 and 205. He forechecks hard and he finishes checks, and he is one of the few forwards on this roster who plays through contact rather than around it.

42 penalty minutes in 79 games and 154 in 280 for his career is a moderate rate. He is trusted a man short and scored 3 shorthanded goals, which for a second-line centre is a real endorsement.

The Intangibles

Seventh overall in 2019, out of Whitehorse, and 280 games and 166 points at 23 with a career minus-41.

He signed a seven-year contract after the 68-point season and produced 47. This is the single largest open question among the club’s forwards: a 68-point centre at 22 is a franchise player and a 47-point centre at 23 is a good second-liner, and the club has committed as though it is the first.

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2023-24 · 1,024 minutes

Expected goals
48.7%
43rd pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
50.3%
58th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 34 for, 41 against. Expected: 44.2 and 46.6.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
79th
Numbers
43rd

The report ranks him 36 points above where the numbers do. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.

Both bars are percentiles among the 201 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 71 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Usual linemates

2023-24 · 1024 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2023-24

The club
BUF took 48.9% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 48.7% — 0.2 below the club he did it on.
The role
First line, 1,024 minutes at five-on-five — 61st percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
JJ Peterka52.0%45.6%50.1%
Zach Benson50.9%47.0%53.0%
Rasmus Dahlin49.1%48.5%51.8%

52.0% together, 45.6% for him apart and 50.1% for Peterka apart. He was worse away from Peterka, who was no better away from him — he needed that pairing more than Peterka did.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

258 unblocked shots in 2023-24, 17 of them goals. His median goal came from 22 feet. 33% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 24% from beyond forty.