Armchair Hockey Scout Beta

This is the 2024-25 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →

19

Peyton Krebs

Buffalo Sabres Center

Sixty-seven penalty minutes, four goals, and fifty goals for on his ice against thirty-seven expected.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2020-21VGK4011+1000010.011:26
2021-22VGK/BUF5771522-26220025612.514:35
2022-23BUF7491726-8501107811.513:50
2023-24BUF8041317+267002745.412:30
2024-25 so far
Career215204666-311391142099.613:30

This Season So Far

The 2024-25 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

4 goals and 13 assists in 80 games — 17 points at 12:30 a night, plus-2, with 2 game-winners on 74 shots at 5.41 per cent, and 67 penalty minutes.

47.8 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 917 minutes, the 36th percentile. His ice went 50-47 against an expectation of 36.47-39.85 — thirteen goals scored above expectation and seven conceded above it, which is a very loud ledger for a fourth-line centre and is mostly noise.

The Finesse Game

74 attempts at a median of 29 feet, with 29 per cent from inside 20 and 23 per cent from beyond 40, converting at 5.41 per cent. Twenty goals in 215 career games; there is no finishing here at all.

13 assists. He carries the puck out of his own end rather than chipping it, and the skating is why he holds a job, but 66 points in 215 games says the offence is not coming.

The Physical Game

6-0 and 188 and light for a centre taking defensive draws. He forechecks honestly without winning many battles against size.

67 penalty minutes in 80 games and 139 in 215 for his career is a high rate for a fourth-line forward with no physical edge, and most of it is the stick foul that follows losing a step. On a club with a 29th-ranked power play, giving the other side one is expensive.

The Intangibles

Seventeenth overall in 2019 by Vegas, traded here in the Jack Eichel deal, and 215 games and 66 points at 23.

He is the ninth first-round pick on this roster and the one furthest from justifying it. Seventeen points in eighty games at 23 is a fourth-line centre’s line, and that is now the likeliest career.

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2023-24 · 917 minutes

Expected goals
47.8%
37th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
52%
72nd pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 50 for, 47 against. Expected: 36.5 and 39.9.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
46th
Numbers
37th

The two rank him within 9 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 201 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 63 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Usual linemates

2023-24 · 917 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2023-24

The club
BUF took 48.9% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 47.8% — 1.1 below the club he did it on.
The role
Fourth line, 917 minutes at five-on-five — 49th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Rasmus Dahlin54.4%44.5%50.4%
Kyle Okposo46.6%48.4%49.3%
Owen Power40.9%51.2%50.6%

54.4% together, 44.5% for him apart and 50.4% for Dahlin apart. Both were worse apart, so whatever the two of them had together was doing real work.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

109 unblocked shots in 2023-24, 4 of them goals. His median goal came from 26 feet. 29% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 23% from beyond forty.