Buffalo Sabres

What the Quant Says

296 goals, 3rd in the league.

Buffalo created 2.875 expected goals per 60 at even strength, 8th, and took 51.4 per cent of the shot attempts at five-on-five, 13th, and 49.8 per cent of the expected goals, 18th.

At five-on-five it scored 197 goals against an expectation of 185.4 — a surplus of 11.6, 7th in the league.

Tage Thompson scored 47 goals and had 94 points on 295 shots at 25, sixth in goals in this book. Jeff Skinner had 35 and 82, Alex Tuch 36 and 79 with 9 game-winners, Dylan Cozens 31 and 68 at 22, Casey Mittelstadt 44 assists and Rasmus Dahlin 15 goals and 73 points from the blue line at 23.

Victor Olofsson scored 28 goals on 4 penalty minutes all season. Six forwards and a defenceman reached 60 points.

What the Scout Says

A six-foot-six centre with the second-hardest shot in the league, and four forwards under 23.

Tage Thompson is 6-6 and 220 and shoots from 31 feet with 29 per cent of his attempts inside 20. The reach is a genuine weapon — he handles the puck a stick-length outside where a defenceman expects it — and the difference between his shot and the identical velocities on the blue line is entirely where it is taken from.

Jeff Skinner is 5-11 and had 35 goals with 52 per cent of his shots from inside 20 feet, at the 9th percentile in top speed. That is very little margin for a 31-year-old scoring winger when the hands go.

Alex Tuch is 6-4 and 219 with the 97th percentile in sprints above twenty miles an hour — fast, heavy and willing on the forecheck, which on this club matters more than 79 points. Dylan Cozens is 6-3 out of Whitehorse in the Yukon and scored 31 at 22.

Casey Mittelstadt was eighth overall in 2017 and had 44 assists in a sixth season, after being demoted and written off. JJ Peterka is 21 and in the 92nd percentile in sprints, Jack Quinn 22 with 37 points and Kyle Okposo 35 with 984 games and the 97th percentile in top speed.

What the Quant Says

Buffalo allowed 2.914 expected goals per 60 at even strength, 29th in the league, and conceded 300 goals, 26th.

At five-on-five it conceded 204 goals against an expectation of 187.2, and the club's goaltending came in 16.8 goals worse than the chances it faced, 25th in the league. Both halves of that were bad, and only one of them is a defence.

Rasmus Dahlin played 78 games at 25:48 and had 73 points at 23, covering 3.80 miles a game — the most of any skater in the league — off a top speed in the 16th percentile. Owen Power played 79 at 23:48 at 20, in the third-largest five-on-five workload in this book.

Two first-overall defencemen on the same blue line, and the club conceded 300 goals. Mattias Samuelsson played 55 games at 22:11 at 6-4 and 229 and is the only man here who hurts anybody.

Henri Jokiharju played 60 games at 21:01 and took 3 per cent of his shots from inside 20 feet. Connor Clifton arrives from Boston with a plus-20, and Erik Johnson from Colorado with 920 career games, a Stanley Cup and no goals in 63 games. Ilya Lyubushkin has gone to Anaheim.

What the Scout Says

Two first-overall picks, one man who hits, and 300 goals against.

Rasmus Dahlin is 6-3 and 204 and covers 3.80 miles a game, the most of any skater in the league, at the 16th percentile in top speed. He is the reason to watch this club. The uncomfortable half is that his best season coincided with the club conceding 300 goals, and a defenceman playing 26 minutes on a team with the 30th-ranked kill will be blamed for some of it.

Owen Power is 6-6 and 226 and played 87 NHL games before his twenty-first birthday, covering 3.44 miles a game. Buffalo has two first-overall defencemen on one blue line, and the interesting question is whether a club can build a defence around two puck-movers and nobody who hurts anybody.

Mattias Samuelsson is 6-4 and 229 and signed a seven-year extension before he had played 100 NHL games. The availability is the risk: 109 games in three seasons.

Connor Clifton arrives, undrafted out of Quinnipiac, 232 games and 157 penalty minutes — hard, willing and limited, bought to solve exactly the problem the numbers describe. Erik Johnson arrives at 35 with 920 games and a Stanley Cup. Jacob Bryson is 5-9 and 177.

What the Quant Says

The club's goaltending came in 16.8 goals worse than the chances it faced, 25th in the league. On a club that scored 296 goals and missed the playoffs, this is the page that matters.

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen went 17-11-4 with an .8909 and a 3.61 in 33 games at 24, facing 1,054 shots. His career line across 46 games is an .8973.

Eric Comrie went 9-9-1 with an .8855 and a 3.67 in 19 games, facing 594. His career line across 47 games is an .8967.

Craig Anderson played 26 games here and does not return.

Neither goaltender on this roster has ever posted a .900 in a season of any length, and the club has not brought one in. Buffalo has assembled the third-best offence in hockey, two first-overall defencemen, and a crease it is asking to solve itself.

What the Scout Says

Two goaltenders, ninety-three career games, and no .900 season between them.

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen is 6-5 and 223 and went 17-11-4 with an .8909 at 24. He is very large and covers the bottom of the net by standing in it; the technique is sound and the reading is not yet quick enough for the traffic this club allows. A career .8973 across 46 games is a small sample of a bad number.

Eric Comrie is 6-1 and 190 and posted an .8855 in 19 games, with a career .8967 across 47. He is the more athletic of the two and the smaller, and neither of those helps on a club that concedes chances at the 29th-best rate in hockey.

Craig Anderson does not return. Buffalo scored 296 goals, missed the playoffs by a point, and enters the season with the same crease. That is either enormous faith in a 24-year-old or a decision nobody wanted to make.

What the Quant Says

22nd in the league at 6.433 expected goals per 60, over 5:05 a night, 12th in power-play time. Ordinary ice, below-average rate, from a club with the third-most goals in hockey.

Tage Thompson scored 20 power-play goals, Jeff Skinner 8, Alex Tuch 8, Victor Olofsson 7, Rasmus Dahlin 6, Dylan Cozens 5, Casey Mittelstadt 4, JJ Peterka 2, Peyton Krebs 1 and Jack Quinn 1. Connor Clifton scored none elsewhere.

Jeff Skinner has 67 career power-play goals in 932 games, the most on the roster, and Kyle Okposo 65 in 984. Victor Olofsson has 34 in 263, Tage Thompson 33 in 301, Erik Johnson 22 in 920 and Alex Tuch 22 in 379.

Twenty power-play goals from one man on a unit that finished 22nd is the clearest statement of the problem: the shot is unstoppable and the rest of the unit has not worked out what to do while it is being set up.

What the Scout Says

Twenty power-play goals from one man, and a unit that still finished twenty-second.

Tage Thompson scored 20 on the second-hardest shot in the league and has 33 in 301 career games. He stands at the top of the left circle and everything is arranged to give him the puck there.

Jeff Skinner has 67 career power-play goals in 932 games, the most on the roster, and scored 8 from the net front at 5-11. Kyle Okposo has 65 in 984 and Victor Olofsson 34 in 263 — the highest career rate of anybody here, on a one-timer from the other circle.

Rasmus Dahlin scored 6 from the point and Alex Tuch 8 at 6-4 in front. Erik Johnson arrives with 22 in 920 games.

The personnel is not the issue. Four men on this unit have scored thirty power-play goals in their careers, and it finished twenty-second.

What the Quant Says

30th in the league at 8.030 expected goals against per 60, over 4:29 a night — the third-fewest shorthanded minutes of any club. The one thing that saved this kill is that it was rarely on the ice.

Dylan Cozens scored 2 shorthanded goals, Tage Thompson 1, Alex Tuch 1, Casey Mittelstadt 1, Kyle Okposo 1 and Peyton Krebs 1. Connor Clifton scored 1 elsewhere.

Zemgus Girgensons has 7 career shorthanded goals in 625 games, the most on the roster, and Kyle Okposo 4 in 984 and Erik Johnson 4 in 920. Tage Thompson has 3 in 301.

Peyton Krebs took the hardest fourth-line assignment on the club and 26 points out of it. Mattias Samuelsson is 6-4 and 229 and Connor Clifton arrives with 157 career penalty minutes in 232 games.

Seven shorthanded goals from six men on a unit that finished thirtieth. The club scores in every situation it is in and defends in none of them.

What the Scout Says

Thirtieth by rate, and the club's answer to it was a fifth-round pick from Quinnipiac.

Zemgus Girgensons is 6-3 and has 7 career shorthanded goals in 625 games, the most on the roster, on 174 career points. He exists on this roster to do this.

Kyle Okposo has 4 career shorthanded goals in 984 games and a captaincy, and Erik Johnson 4 in 920 with 514 penalty minutes. Both are 35.

Peyton Krebs took the hardest fourth-line minutes on the club and came out with 26 points and a 46.7 per cent chance share, which is a good result out of that job. Mattias Samuelsson is 6-4 and 229 and is the only defenceman here who clears a crease.

Connor Clifton arrives with 157 penalty minutes in 232 games. One hard, willing third-pair defenceman is what Buffalo has bought to fix a unit that finished thirtieth, and it is not obviously enough.