This is the 2022-23 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →

Tyler Seguin

Twenty-four goals and a minus-21 — the worst plus-minus of a twelve-year career, on the wrong side of every share on the page.

Season	Team	GP	G	A	PTS	+/-	PIM	PP	SH	GW	S	S%	TOI

2010-11	BOS	74	11	11	22	-4	18	1	0	0	131	8.4	12:13
2011-12	BOS	81	29	38	67	+34	30	5	0	7	242	12.0	16:56
2012-13	BOS	48	16	16	32	+23	16	4	0	2	161	9.9	17:01
2013-14	DAL	80	37	47	84	+16	18	11	0	8	294	12.6	19:21
2014-15	DAL	71	37	40	77	-1	22	13	0	5	280	13.2	19:33
2015-16	DAL	72	33	40	73	+2	16	7	0	6	278	11.9	19:27
2016-17	DAL	82	26	46	72	-15	22	11	0	4	301	8.6	18:28
2017-18	DAL	82	40	38	78	+12	43	14	1	6	335	11.9	20:55
2018-19	DAL	82	33	47	80	+17	18	9	0	8	334	9.9	20:45
2019-20	DAL	69	17	33	50	-2	22	3	0	6	245	6.9	19:09
2020-21	DAL	3	2	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	8	25.0	17:04
2021-22	DAL	81	24	25	49	-21	30	3	0	2	218	11.0	17:49
2022-23 so far	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Career	—	825	305	381	686	+61	255	81	1	54	2827	10.8	18:24

This Season So Far

The 2022-23 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

24 goals and 25 assists in 81 games — 49 points, a minus-21 and 30 penalty minutes at 17:49 a night, the 73rd percentile. The minus is the worst of his career; the previous worst was minus-15 in 2016-17.

46.6 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 1,153 minutes, the 23rd percentile. His ice went 37-50 against an expectation of 44.26-50.62 — seven fewer goals than the chances promised at one end and the right number at the other. The share was bad and the finishing made it worse.

Seven playoff games for two goals and two assists.

The Finesse Game

9.06 shots per 60 is the 79th percentile among forwards — the volume is still there and it is the last thing that will go.

Twenty-four goals on 218 shots is 11.0 per cent, the 46th percentile. Ordinary, on a career that has finished above 12 per cent in only two full seasons.

44 per cent of his shots came from the slot, the 24th percentile, and the median travels 27 feet, the 72nd. That is the change worth naming: he is shooting from further out than he used to and further out than his linemates, which is what happens when a forward stops getting to the middle.

1.76 even-strength points per 60 is the 48th percentile and 27 per cent of his points came on the power play. 1.08 takeaways per 60 is the 13th percentile.

The Physical Game

6-2 and 205. 22.1 mph is the 28th percentile among forwards and 3.3 bursts over 20 mph per 60 is the 25th. Neither is a good number and neither is a catastrophic one; he is a middling skater by the league’s own measurement, which is not what he was.

93.3 mph is the 75th percentile. The shot is intact.

39.1 per cent of his even-strength time was spent in the attacking zone, the 14th percentile — the second-lowest of any Dallas forward the tracking qualifies, behind Jamie Benn. Whatever was going wrong, it was going wrong at his end.

3.99 hits per 60 is the 52nd percentile and 1.37 blocks the 34th. Thirty penalty minutes in eighty-one games.

The Intangibles

Second overall in 2010, and 825 NHL games with 305 goals and 686 points at 30. Seven seasons of sixty-plus points, then three games in 2020-21 and this.

With Jamie Benn he takes 46.9 per cent of the chances over 1,192 attempts; without Benn, 46.4 over 959. That is the flattest with-and-without pair in the chapter and the reading is unkind to both men: 1,192 attempts together and it makes no difference which of them is out there.

Ryan Suter with him is at 45.2 and without him 54.0. Miro Heiskanen with him is at 49.2 and without him 55.6. Every defenceman in Dallas posts a worse number with him than without.

Two years of that is a trend and one year is a season. This is year one, and the shot volume is the reason to wait.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

measuredcomputed here from the season's own data

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

durable· was available
81 of 82 games
Season to season, this measure repeats weakly (0.32) · 53% keep it

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2021-22 · 1,153 minutes

Expected goals: 46.6%; 28th pct
Shot attempts: 47.3%; 32nd pct

Goals while he was on the ice: 37 for, 50 against. Expected: 44.3 and 50.6.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight

Report

22nd

Numbers

28th

The two rank him within 6 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 649 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 54 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2021-22 · 81 games

Top speed: 22.1 mph; 47th pct
Bursts over 20 mph: 0.99 a game
Distance: 2.80 miles a game
Hardest shot: 93.3 mph; 84th pct

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2021-22 · 1153 minutes at five-on-five

Jamie Benn53%
Denis Gurianov44%
Alexander Radulovoff the roster17%

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2021-22

The club: DAL took 51.0% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 46.6% — 4.4 below the club he did it on.
The role: Second line, 1,153 minutes at five-on-five — 81st percentile in ice time.

With and without

Teammate	Together	Him apart	Mate apart
Jamie Benn	46.9%	46.4%	49.2%
Denis Gurianov	45.9%	47.3%	48.3%
Ryan Suter	45.2%	47.6%	54.0%

46.9% together, 46.4% for him apart and 49.2% for Benn apart. Splitting them up moved neither man. Whatever is driving the share, it is not this pairing.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

273 unblocked shots in 2021-22, 24 of them goals. His median goal came from 11 feet. 33% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 24% from beyond forty.