Armchair Hockey Scout

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2025-26 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2025-26 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.
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91

Tyler Seguin

Dallas Stars Center

20 games and 21 points before hip surgery, and a career that has now been interrupted more often than it has run.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2010-11BOS74111122-4181001318.412:13
2011-12BOS81293867+343050724212.016:56
2012-13BOS48161632+23164021619.917:01
2013-14DAL80374784+1618110829412.619:21
2014-15DAL71374077-122130528013.219:33
2015-16DAL72334073+21670627811.919:27
2016-17DAL82264672-152211043018.618:28
2017-18DAL82403878+1243141633511.920:55
2018-19DAL82334780+17189083349.920:45
2019-20DAL69173350-2223062456.919:09
2020-21DAL320200000825.017:04
2021-22DAL81242549-213030221811.017:49
2022-23DAL76212950+32471318911.116:37
2023-24DAL68252752+102630315416.216:33
2024-25DAL2091221+1543024619.616:09
2025-26 so far—————————————
Career—989360449809+8930994262321611.218:05

This Season So Far

The 2025-26 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

9 goals and 12 assists in 20 games for 21 points, plus-15, on 16:09 a night before hip surgery in November ended the regular season for him.

A point a game is the headline and 20 games is the report. 19.6 per cent shooting over that stretch, on a 54.6 per cent chance share, in the sort of sample that should not be read as anything.

The Finesse Game

The release is still the best thing about him — quick, deceptive, and available off either foot. When he is healthy he remains a genuine scoring threat from the top of the circles, and the hands in tight have not gone anywhere.

The skating has. He was never explosive after the knee, and the hip has taken more of it: he no longer separates from defencemen and has become a player who needs the puck given to him in space rather than one who finds space himself. 47 per cent of his attempts still come from inside 20 feet, so the instincts are intact.

The Physical Game

6-2 and 205, and a low-contact game that has got lower. He is not a forechecker and has not been for years, and he avoids the net front where the punishment is.

4 penalty minutes in 20 games. The body is the entire question: a knee, a hip, and three of the last six seasons cut short.

The Intangibles

Thirteen seasons in Dallas after arriving as the other half of a famous trade, and a reputation in his twenties that he spent his thirties correcting. Nobody questions the professionalism now.

At 33, coming off hip surgery, on a contract with real term left, this is a club hoping for 60 games of a second-line winger. It would be a good outcome.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • he lacks itraised, and he does not have it

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • punishinghe lacks it· finishes checks; hurts people legally

    “6-2 and 205, and a low-contact game that has got lower.”

  • forechecks-aggressivelyhe lacks it· first man in, and on the puck

    “He is not a forechecker and has not been for years”

  • net-fronthe lacks it· lives in the blue paint; the screens and the tips

    “he avoids the net front where the punishment is”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2024-25 · 260 minutes

Expected goals
54.6%
88th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
54.5%
90th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 18 for, 8 against. Expected: 13.4 and 11.2.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
66th
Numbers
88th

The numbers rank him 22 points above where the report does. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.

Both bars are percentiles among the 637 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 75 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2024-25 · 20 games

Top speed
22.3 mph
50th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.2

Bursts over 20 mph
0.60 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
2.57 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
79.6 mph
18th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 83.9

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2024-25 · 260 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2024-25

The club
DAL took 50.7% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 54.6% — 3.9 above the club he did it on.
The role
260 minutes at five-on-five — 4th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Miro Heiskanen61.7%50.0%53.2%
Thomas Harley60.2%50.9%52.3%
Esa Lindell51.6%56.0%50.5%

61.7% together, 50.0% for him apart and 53.2% for Heiskanen apart. Both were worse apart, so whatever the two of them had together was doing real work.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

66 unblocked shots in 2024-25, 8 of them goals. His median goal came from 15 feet. 47% of his shots came from inside twenty feet.