Seth Jarvis

5-10, 32 goals, and he takes his shots where the goals are.

Season	Team	GP	G	A	PTS	+/-	PIM	PP	SH	GW	S	S%	TOI

2021-22	CAR	68	17	23	40	+11	18	2	0	4	110	15.4	13:53
2022-23	CAR	82	14	25	39	+10	12	0	1	0	187	7.5	16:12
2023-24	CAR	81	33	34	67	+23	14	13	2	9	176	18.8	18:45
2024-25	CAR	73	32	35	67	+12	16	7	5	2	204	15.7	19:21
2025-26	CAR	71	32	34	66	+6	23	5	4	7	224	14.3	18:53
2026-27 so far	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Career	—	375	128	151	279	+62	83	27	12	22	901	14.2	17:27

This Season So Far

The 2026-27 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

32 goals and 34 assists in 71 games — 66 points, plus-6, at 18:53 a night. 224 shots on goal.

The Finesse Game

The shot chart is the argument. 46 per cent of his unblocked attempts came from inside 20 feet with a median of 23, and 33 went in across all situations.

That is 180 pound winger doing his scoring in the ice reserved for men 60 pounds heavier. He gets there on quickness and on being willing to take the punishment that comes with standing in it, and it is the whole reason a 5-10 forward scores 30.

The skating is excellent and the release is quick. 34 assists says he is not a one-way scorer.

The Physical Game

5-10, 180, and the limitation is real without being disqualifying. He does not win wall battles by strength; he wins them by getting there first and by not letting go. 23 penalty minutes.

He kills penalties on the second-best penalty kill in the league, which for a player his size is a genuine statement of trust.

The Intangibles

56.1 per cent of the expected goals, 92nd percentile, and 60.4 per cent of the shot attempts, 99th, across 935 minutes with the goals 42-43 against.

He is 24, the thirteenth pick in 2020, and 128 goals into a career that is only going to get better. 10 points in his last 10.

Between him, Stankoven and Blake, Carolina has built a top 6 out of small forwards who play in the traffic. That is a deliberate and unusual bet, and last season it was the best possession team in hockey.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

measuredcomputed here from the season's own data

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

sheltered· is started in the attacking end
64% of his end-zone starts in the attacking end, 94th percentile among forwards
Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.66) · 47% keep it

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2025-26 · 935 minutes

Expected goals: 56.1%; 93rd pct
Shot attempts: 60.4%; 99th pct

Goals while he was on the ice: 42 for, 43 against. Expected: 50.1 and 39.1.

The eye and the numbers

Sighted

Report

89th

Numbers

93rd

Blind

86th

The two rank him within 4 points of one another. It was written with these numbers on screen, so the agreement is not corroboration — the arithmetic is on both sides of it.

The same player was graded a second time from his biography and his box score alone, with the measured record withheld. That reading lands 7 points from the numbers; this one lands 4. Across the whole control the two distances come out the same, which is worth knowing in both directions: the arithmetic on both sides of the sighted reading did not buy it any accuracy, and it did not cost it any either.

All three bars are percentiles among the 656 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 80 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2025-26 · 71 games

Top speed: 23.4 mph; 93rd pct
Bursts over 20 mph: 2.41 a game
Distance: 3.01 miles a game
Hardest shot: 88.2 mph; 71st pct

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Recent form

Last 20 appearances, 2025-26, oldest first

points in his last 10 games — 4 goals, 6 assists, 32 shots

Each bar is one game by points. Filled bars are games he scored in.

Usual linemates

2025-26 · 935 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2025-26

The club: CAR took 55.7% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 56.1% — 0.4 above the club he did it on.
The role: Second line, 935 minutes at five-on-five — 53rd percentile in ice time.

With and without

Teammate	Together	Him apart	Mate apart
Sebastian Aho	56.6%	53.1%	55.2%
Andrei Svechnikov	55.6%	57.4%	55.0%
Sean Walker	56.7%	55.7%	56.7%

56.6% together, 53.1% for him apart and 55.2% for Aho apart. He was worse away from Aho, who was no better away from him — he needed that pairing more than Aho did.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

330 unblocked shots in 2025-26, 33 of them goals. His median goal came from 17 feet. 46% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 13% from beyond forty.