Armchair Hockey Scout

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2024-25 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2024-25 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

This is the 2024-25 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →

47

Declan Chisholm

Minnesota Wild Defense

Thirty-one games at 16:31, the highest chance share on the club, and the goals went the other way.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2021-22WPG2000+1000040.012:57
2023-24WPG/MIN31369-7182002910.316:31
2024-25 so far—————————————
Career—33369-618200339.116:18

This Season So Far

The 2024-25 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

31 games, 3 goals and 6 assists for 9 points, 2 on the power play, 18 penalty minutes, 16:31 a night and minus-7. He took 56.1 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 436 minutes, the 92nd percentile, and his ice went 12-18 against an expectation of 17.38-13.59.

Five goals of scoring that did not arrive and four more conceded than the chances called for. That is the highest chance share on this roster, and his ice still went 12-18, which in 436 minutes is mostly noise.

The Finesse Game

45 attempts at a median of 53 feet with 71 per cent from beyond 40, converted at 10.3 per cent.

Six assists in 31 games and two power-play goals. He skates and he passes, which on a blue line built of size and position is the thing it does not otherwise have. Nine points in thirty-one games at 24 is the shape of a puck-moving third-pair defenceman.

The Physical Game

He is 6-1 and 205 and defends with his feet, taking the puck rather than the man.

18 penalty minutes in 31 games at sixteen and a half a night is a real rate for a player this size. He does not clear the crease and he does not win many walls.

The Intangibles

A fifth-round pick in 2018 out of Bowmanville, two seasons, and 9 points in 33 games.

He is 24 and Winnipeg let him go on waivers. A 92nd-percentile chance share in a third of a season is a small sample and a real one, and this club’s blue line is old enough behind the top four to need him.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed
  • he lacks itraised, and he does not have it

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • drives-play· the shot clock turns his way while he is out there

    56.1% of the expected goals at five-on-five with him on, 50.7% for his club in the minutes he sat: +5.4, 95th percentile among defencemen

    Season to season, this measure repeats moderately (0.39) · 29% keep it

  • transitiona strength· carries it out; gains the line under control

    “He skates and he passes, which on a blue line built of size and position is the thing it does not otherwise have.”

  • playmakera strength· passes up the shot a scorer takes

    “He skates and he passes, which on a blue line built of size and position is the thing it does not otherwise have.”

  • defends-with-reacha strength· takes the puck before the contact happens

    “He is 6-1 and 205 and defends with his feet, taking the puck rather than the man.”

  • clears-the-creasehe lacks it· moves grown men off the front of his net

    “He does not clear the crease and he does not win many walls.”

  • wins-the-wallhe lacks it· the corners and below the goal line

    “He does not clear the crease and he does not win many walls.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2023-24 · 436 minutes

Expected goals
56.1%
92nd pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
51.2%
65th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 12 for, 18 against. Expected: 17.4 and 13.6.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
31st
Numbers
92nd

The numbers rank him 61 points above where the report does. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.

Both bars are percentiles among the 652 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 65 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2023-24 · 31 games

Top speed
22.1 mph
69th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 21.7

Bursts over 20 mph
1.06 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
2.39 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
89.1 mph
34th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 90.2

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2023-24 · 416 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2023-24

The club
MIN took 51.3% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 56.1% — 4.8 above the club he did it on.
The role
436 minutes at five-on-five — 14th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Jon Merrill53.3%57.2%50.2%
Marco Rossi62.9%52.6%51.6%
Kirill Kaprizov62.1%52.6%54.8%

53.3% together, 57.2% for him apart and 50.2% for Merrill apart. He was carrying it: the share stayed with him and left Merrill behind.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

45 unblocked shots in 2023-24, 3 of them goals. His median goal came from 42 feet. 9% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 71% from beyond forty.