Armchair Hockey Scout

Ask the book

2022-23 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2022-23 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

This is the 2022-23 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →

8

Ryan Donato

Seattle Kraken Center

The 88th-percentile takeaway rate and sixteen goals from a 21-foot median, at 13:48 a night.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2017-18BOS12549+222002420.814:42
2018-19BOS/MIN56101525-1563011397.213:42
2019-20MIN6214923+5120019514.710:38
2020-21SJS5061420-11102011045.812:36
2021-22SEA74161531-134010215910.113:48
2022-23 so far—————————————
Career—2545157108-32708055219.812:49

This Season So Far

The 2022-23 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

74 games, 16 goals and 15 assists at 13:48 a night, minus-13, forty penalty minutes, 159 shots. Fifty-sixth overall in 2014 by Boston, five seasons, 254 games, 108 points. Thirty-one points is a career high by six and sixteen goals is a career high by two.

The Finesse Game

Fifty-seven per cent of his attempts came from the slot at a 21-foot median, and sixteen of his thirty-one points were goals.

9.35 shots per 60 is the 82nd percentile at 10.1 per cent — a real volume rate from close range on one of the smallest forward shifts on the roster.

2.03 even-strength points per 60 is the 65th percentile and only three per cent of his points came on the power play, off 1:48 a night. Almost everything he produced came at five-on-five.

2.29 takeaways per 60 is the 88th percentile among forwards, at 13:48 a night, the fifth-smallest workload of any Seattle forward who played forty games.

48.7 per cent of the expected goals and 48.8 per cent of the attempts, out of 55.5 per cent offensive-zone starts, the 169th-highest of the 652 skaters who took two hundred end-zone starts.

His ice went 40-43 against an expectation of 30.79-32.48 — nine goals of surplus in front and ten and a half more against than the model asked. Both halves are large and they nearly cancel, and on a club whose crease rated 31st the second of them needs no other explanation.

The Physical Game

4.11 hits per 60 is the 54th percentile and 1.00 blocks the 16th at 6-0 and 190 pounds. 1.00 penalties drawn per 60 against 0.76 taken, and forty penalty minutes came out of seventy-four games.

The Intangibles

22.5 mph is the 53rd percentile, 4.4 bursts per 60 the 42nd, 9.54 miles per 60 the 40th. Three skating measurements within a whisker of the middle — there is nothing in the tracking that says anything either way.

His shot is 88.1 mph, the 34th percentile. The goals come from twenty-one feet, not from velocity.

He is 26 with 254 games across five seasons and four organisations. The shot volume, the geography and the takeaways are three real things on a small shift. The absence of any power-play role, an ordinary skating file and a career that has never been given more than fourteen minutes a night are the rest of it.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • net-fronta strength· lives in the blue paint; the screens and the tips

    “Fifty-seven per cent of his attempts came from the slot at a 21-foot median, and sixteen of his thirty-one points were goals.”

  • forechecks-aggressivelya strength· first man in, and on the puck

    “2.29 takeaways per 60 is the 88th percentile among forwards, at 13:48 a night, the fifth-smallest workload of any Seattle forward who played forty games.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2021-22 · 885 minutes

Expected goals
48.7%
45th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
48.8%
43rd pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 40 for, 43 against. Expected: 30.8 and 32.5.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
63rd
Numbers
45th

The two rank him within 18 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 649 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 63 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2021-22 · 74 games

Top speed
22.5 mph
67th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.0

Bursts over 20 mph
1.01 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
2.19 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
88.1 mph
55th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 84.1

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2021-22 · 885 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2021-22

The club
SEA took 49.3% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 48.7% — 0.6 below the club he did it on.
The role
First line, 885 minutes at five-on-five — 48th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Vince Dunn51.1%47.2%47.4%
Adam Larsson46.4%49.7%46.1%
Jamie Oleksiak47.2%49.4%52.3%

51.1% together, 47.2% for him apart and 47.4% for Dunn apart. Both were worse apart, so whatever the two of them had together was doing real work.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

223 unblocked shots in 2021-22, 18 of them goals. His median goal came from 13 feet. 47% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 16% from beyond forty.