Armchair Hockey Scout

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2022-23 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2022-23 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

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17

Will Borgen

Seattle Kraken Defense

Thirty-six games and a 54-foot median shot, from a fourth-round pick who has played fifty NHL games in three years.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2018-19BUF4000-5000020.016:33
2020-21BUF10000-4400070.016:16
2021-22SEA36268+128000494.115:17
2022-23 so far—————————————
Career—50268-832000583.515:35

This Season So Far

The 2022-23 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

36 games, 2 goals and 6 assists at 15:17 a night, plus-1, twenty-eight penalty minutes, 49 shots. Ninety-second overall in 2015 by Buffalo — the fourth round — three seasons, 50 games, 8 points.

Thirty-six games is short of the forty this book requires before it will place a man in the league distribution, so what follows is described rather than ranked.

The Finesse Game

Fifty-four feet is the median distance of his forty-nine shots and three per cent of them came from inside twenty. Seventy-nine per cent came from beyond forty. That is as pure a point shooter as this book records, and it comes off forty-nine attempts.

51.9 per cent of the expected goals across 514 five-on-five minutes, which is the best figure of any Seattle defenceman — and the smallest sample any of them is drawn from.

He started 53.7 per cent of his end-zone shifts in the attacking end, the 213th-highest of the 652 skaters who took two hundred end-zone starts — the third-softest chair on this blue line, behind Justin Schultz at 58.8 and Vince Dunn at 56.2.

His ice went 14-14 against an expectation of 18.65-17.30 — four and a half goals short in front, three more against than the model asked, across half a season on a club whose goaltending rated 31st.

The Physical Game

Twenty-eight penalty minutes in thirty-six games at 6-3 and 199 pounds. That is nearly a minute a game from a third-pair defenceman, and across fifty career games he has thirty-two.

The Intangibles

22.1 mph top speed and 1.1 bursts over twenty miles an hour a game, both drawn from thirty-six games — a maximum scales with the number of shifts a man takes.

His shot is 96.1 mph, the 82nd percentile of the 568 skaters the tracking covers with forty games. That is the one measurement here that a half-season does not distort, and it is a genuine figure.

2.31 miles a game is the 30th percentile, which at fifteen minutes a night is the shift length.

He is 25 and has fifty NHL games across three calendar years after leaving the organisation that drafted him. The shot speed, the shot chart and the penalty minutes are the three things the record establishes. Five hundred and fourteen minutes is not a season and this club has four defencemen ahead of him.

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2021-22 · 514 minutes

Expected goals
51.9%
70th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
52%
72nd pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 14 for, 14 against. Expected: 18.6 and 17.3.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
53rd
Numbers
70th

The two rank him within 17 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 649 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 61 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2021-22 · 36 games

Top speed
22.1 mph
71st pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 21.5

Bursts over 20 mph
1.14 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
2.31 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
96.1 mph
77th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 90.4

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2021-22 · 514 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2021-22

The club
SEA took 49.3% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 51.9% — 2.6 above the club he did it on.
The role
514 minutes at five-on-five — 19th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Jared McCann56.7%49.8%49.9%
Ryan Donato46.2%53.8%49.1%
Jordan Eberle53.4%51.3%49.3%

56.7% together, 49.8% for him apart and 49.9% for McCann apart. Both were worse apart, so whatever the two of them had together was doing real work.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

63 unblocked shots in 2021-22, 2 of them goals. His median goal came from 62 feet. 3% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 79% from beyond forty.