Armchair Hockey Scout Beta

This is the 2024-25 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →

24

Zach Bogosian

Minnesota Wild Defense

Third overall in 2008, 778 penalty minutes, 848 games, and a Stanley Cup at the third stop.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2008-09ATL4791019+11472119010.018:06
2009-10ATL81101323-18613101556.521:25
2010-11ATL7151217-27290011553.222:24
2011-12WPG6552530-3711001503.323:19
2012-13WPG335914-529000855.923:07
2013-14WPG553811+3480001342.222:55
2014-15WPG/BUF6231720-6780001252.423:39
2015-16BUF6471724-11683011215.822:21
2016-17BUF562911-1746001732.720:05
2017-18BUF18011-920000290.019:09
2018-19BUF6531619-552010933.221:38
2019-20BUF/TBL27167022000293.516:38
2020-21TOR45044+749000360.014:32
2021-22TBL48358+253001605.015:22
2022-23TBL46145-442000541.814:59
2023-24TBL/MIN6531114+1163001833.617:53
2024-25 so far
Career84860167227-7177893614724.120:16

This Season So Far

The 2024-25 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

65 games, 3 goals and 11 assists for 14 points, 63 penalty minutes, 17:53 a night and plus-11. He took 52.8 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 1,049 minutes, the 74th percentile, and his ice went 48-41 against an expectation of 39.97-35.72.

Eight goals of finishing above what the chances were worth and five more conceded than they called for. A 74th-percentile chance share on a second pair at 33 is more than the contract was asking for.

The Finesse Game

122 attempts at a median of 57 feet with 83 per cent from beyond 40 and 3 per cent from inside 20, converted at 3.6 per cent against a career 4.08.

167 career assists in 848 games. That is the shot chart of a man who has been told to keep it simple and has agreed. Sixty goals in sixteen seasons; the puck goes to the net from the point or it goes off the glass.

The Physical Game

He hits as hard as anybody in the league at 6-3 and 231, and 778 career penalty minutes in 848 games is what sixteen years of it costs.

He will fight, he clears the crease, and he is hard to move from in front of his own net. He blocks shots and kills penalties, and a good deal of the sixty-three minutes is retaliation.

The Intangibles

Third overall in 2008 out of Massena, New York, sixteen seasons in Atlanta, Winnipeg, Buffalo, Tampa Bay, Toronto and now here, and 227 points in 848 games at a career minus-71.

He is 34 and won a Stanley Cup in Tampa Bay in 2020 after eleven years of losing everywhere else. The career minus-71 is a description of the clubs rather than the player.

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2023-24 · 1,049 minutes

Expected goals
52.8%
74th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
51.5%
68th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 48 for, 41 against. Expected: 40.0 and 35.7.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
37th
Numbers
74th

The numbers rank him 37 points above where the report does. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.

Both bars are percentiles among the 415 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 63 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Usual linemates

2023-24 · 1002 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2023-24

The club
MIN took 51.3% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 52.8% — 1.5 above the club he did it on.
The role
Second pair, 1,049 minutes at five-on-five — 65th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Jonas Brodin55.2%51.6%52.0%
Marco Rossi59.2%50.1%50.8%
Kirill Kaprizov60.4%49.0%54.1%

55.2% together, 51.6% for him apart and 52.0% for Brodin apart. Both were worse apart, so whatever the two of them had together was doing real work.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

122 unblocked shots in 2023-24, 3 of them goals. His median goal came from 35 feet. 3% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 83% from beyond forty.