Armchair Hockey Scout Beta

This is the 2024-25 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →

55

Jake Middleton

Minnesota Wild Defense

Sixteen goals underwater on the goaltending, which was the worst mark on the club and none of it his.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2018-19SJS3011-1200009:56
2019-20SJS10022-2900090.010:46
2020-21SJS1000-2200010.08:44
2021-22SJS/MIN6641014+1082000735.518:41
2022-23MIN7931215+1572000793.819:02
2023-24MIN8071825-1577001858.219:49
2024-25 so far
Career239144357+52440012475.718:42

This Season So Far

The 2024-25 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

80 games, 7 goals and 18 assists for 25 points, 77 penalty minutes, 19:49 a night and minus-15. He took 48.3 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 1,369 minutes, the 40th percentile, and his ice went 50-70 against an expectation of 50.37-54.02.

Level with the chances at one end and sixteen more conceded than they called for at the other. That is the worst goaltending residual on the roster and it is what a minus-15 looks like when the shot share is only slightly below even.

The Finesse Game

117 attempts at a median of 46 feet with 18 per cent from inside 20, converted at 8.2 per cent against a career 5.67.

43 career assists in 239 games. Seven goals is a career high by three and it will not repeat. He gets the puck off the wall and out, and he does not carry it.

The Physical Game

He is 6-3 and 219 and hits as hard as any defenceman on this roster.

244 career penalty minutes in 239 games is a rate above one a game. He will fight, he clears the crease, and he blocks shots and kills penalties on a club that spends the sixth-most time shorthanded in hockey.

The Intangibles

A seventh-round pick in 2014 by Los Angeles, out of Wainwright, Alberta, six seasons across two organisations, and 57 points in 239 games.

He is 28 and took 19:49 a night on the second pair. A 210th-overall pick playing top-four minutes on the second-best defensive club in hockey is a good outcome, whatever the plus-minus says.

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2023-24 · 1,369 minutes

Expected goals
48.3%
40th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
46.8%
26th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 50 for, 70 against. Expected: 50.4 and 54.0.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
53rd
Numbers
40th

The two rank him within 13 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 415 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 66 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Usual linemates

2023-24 · 1369 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2023-24

The club
MIN took 51.3% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 48.3% — 3.0 below the club he did it on.
The role
First pair, 1,369 minutes at five-on-five — 93rd percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Brock Faber47.1%50.0%54.4%
Kirill Kaprizov50.9%46.8%58.3%
Joel Eriksson Ek50.3%47.3%57.9%

47.1% together, 50.0% for him apart and 54.4% for Faber apart. Faber was better away from him while his own share held, which is a mark against him more than for him.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

117 unblocked shots in 2023-24, 7 of them goals. His median goal came from 20 feet. 18% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 56% from beyond forty.