Armchair Hockey Scout

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2024-25 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2024-25 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

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23

Marco Rossi

Minnesota Wild Center

Five foot nine, 182 pounds, ninth overall, and 21 goals in a first full season.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2021-22MIN2000-1400050.015:35
2022-23MIN19011-78000130.012:31
2023-24MIN82211940-44720216712.616:44
2024-25 so far—————————————
Career—103212041-125920218511.315:56

This Season So Far

The 2024-25 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

All 82 games, 21 goals and 19 assists for 40 points, 2 on the power play, 47 penalty minutes, 16:44 a night and minus-4. He took 52.9 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 1,169 minutes, the 75th percentile, and his ice went 44-39 against an expectation of 46.89-41.72.

Three goals of scoring that did not arrive and three fewer conceded than the chances called for. He is one of only two of the fifteen skaters here with four hundred five-on-five minutes who finished on the right side of the goaltending, which on a club that was 28th at it is worth noting.

The Finesse Game

232 attempts at a median of 24 feet with 41 per cent from inside 20, converted at 12.6 per cent.

Twenty career assists in 103 games. The shot is ordinary and the twenty-one goals came from getting to the right ice. He is a passer by instinct and the club has him shooting, and the balance of that is still being worked out.

The Physical Game

He is 5-9 and 182 and gets to the interior anyway, which is the whole reason he is in the league.

47 penalty minutes in 82 games is a real rate for a small centre and most of it is a stick when he has been beaten. He takes the draw and he does not get moved off it. Minnesota did not use him to start in his own end: 58.7 per cent of his five-on-five shifts started in the attacking zone, the 84th percentile.

The Intangibles

Ninth overall in 2020 out of Feldkirch, three seasons, and 41 points in 103 games. He had one point in his first 21 NHL games across two seasons and was written off for it.

He is 23 and played all 82. Twenty-one goals at 5-9 on a club with the twenty-sixth-best chance creation in hockey is the third-most encouraging thing here.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • durable· was available

    82 of 82 games

    Season to season, this measure repeats weakly (0.32) · 53% keep it

  • faceoffsa strength· takes the draw that starts it

    “He takes the draw and he does not get moved off it.”

  • fouls-when-beatena strength· the stick foul that follows losing a step

    “47 penalty minutes in 82 games is a real rate for a small centre and most of it is a stick when he has been beaten.”

  • playmakera strength· passes up the shot a scorer takes

    “He is a passer by instinct and the club has him shooting, and the balance of that is still being worked out.”

  • net-fronta strength· lives in the blue paint; the screens and the tips

    “He is 5-9 and 182 and gets to the interior anyway, which is the whole reason he is in the league.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2023-24 · 1,169 minutes

Expected goals
52.9%
75th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
51.6%
69th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 44 for, 39 against. Expected: 46.9 and 41.7.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
51st
Numbers
75th

The numbers rank him 24 points above where the report does. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.

Both bars are percentiles among the 652 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 70 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2023-24 · 82 games

Top speed
22.2 mph
50th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.1

Bursts over 20 mph
0.94 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
2.65 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
86.1 mph
46th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 84.5

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2023-24 · 1169 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2023-24

The club
MIN took 51.3% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 52.9% — 1.6 above the club he did it on.
The role
Second line, 1,169 minutes at five-on-five — 80th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Mats Zuccarello52.0%53.8%52.9%
Kirill Kaprizov51.1%54.3%58.2%
Brock Faber49.4%54.9%50.9%

52.0% together, 53.8% for him apart and 52.9% for Zuccarello apart. Splitting them up moved neither man. Whatever is driving the share, it is not this pairing.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

232 unblocked shots in 2023-24, 21 of them goals. His median goal came from 19 feet. 42% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 16% from beyond forty.