This is the 2022-23 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →
Lucas Raymond
Detroit Red Wings Left Wing
Fifty-seven points in a first NHL season at 19, and the 5th-worst plus-minus of the 611 skaters who played 40 games.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | PTS | +/- | PIM | PP | SH | GW | S | S% | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-22 | DET | 82 | 23 | 34 | 57 | -32 | 16 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 184 | 12.5 | 18:09 |
| 2022-23 so far | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Career | — | 82 | 23 | 34 | 57 | -32 | 16 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 184 | 12.5 | 18:09 |
This Season So Far
The 2022-23 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.
Last Season
23 goals and 34 assists in 82 games — 57 points in his first NHL season, at 18:09 a night, the 78th percentile among forwards — with a minus-32, the 5th-worst of the 611 skaters who played 40 games, and 16 penalty minutes.
48.0 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 1,193 minutes, the 35th percentile. His ice went 52-63 against an expectation of 53.17-57.5. The chance share is below even and the goals were worse than the chances, and both of those are what a 19-year-old on a 25th-place club collects.
The Finesse Game
32 per cent of his points came on the power play, the 82nd percentile, off 2:48 a night at the 80th. That is the highest power-play dependence of any Detroit forward and the number to hold against the 57 points.
7.42 shots per 60 is the 52nd percentile and 23 goals on 184 shots is 12.5 per cent, the 60th. 52 per cent came from the slot at a median of 23 feet — ordinary, and honest.
1.86 even-strength points per 60 is the 55th percentile. Thirty-nine of his fifty-seven points came at five-on-five, and the rate is average for a top-six forward rather than remarkable.
1.05 takeaways per 60 is the 12th percentile against 1.45 giveaways at the 46th. He is careful with the puck and he does not take it off anyone, which at nineteen is the expected half of the ledger.
The Physical Game
5-11 and 186, and the lightest forward Detroit plays in the top six.
21.9 mph is the 20th percentile among forwards and 3.8 bursts over 20 mph per 60 is the 32nd. 9.47 miles per 60 is the 33rd. He is not a fast skater by the league’s own measurement and he does not cover unusual ground. That is the most surprising line in the file and it is worth stating without dressing it up: the fourth pick of his draft produced 57 points in the bottom third of the league for speed.
85.6 mph is the 21st percentile — a soft shot, and 23 goals came off it anyway.
2.50 hits per 60 is the 28th percentile and 0.97 blocks the 15th. 0.32 penalties taken per 60 is the 12th percentile — sixteen minutes in eighty-two games, with plus-0.48 net at the 85th.
The Intangibles
Fourth overall in 2020, and this was the whole of his NHL record: 82 games, 57 points.
With Dylan Larkin he took 48.5 per cent of the chances over 1,734 attempts and 46.3 without him over 450. Larkin apart from him is at 52.9 over 270. Both apart-samples are fragments and both favour the centre.
With Filip Hronek behind him he is at 50.6 and without 46.6; with Moritz Seider 45.4 and without 50.1. The same five-point swing every Detroit forward shows, and it is not about him.
A 19-year-old wing with 57 points, average skating and a minus-32 is three different arguments, and the honest position is that one full season does not settle any of them.
What kind of player
The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.
- measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
- a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed
Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.
- durable· was available
82 of 82 games
Season to season, this measure repeats weakly (0.32) · 53% keep it
“He is careful with the puck and he does not take it off anyone”
The numbers underneath
On the ice
Five-on-five, 2021-22 · 1,193 minutes
- Expected goals
- 48%
- 39th pct
- Shot attempts
- 48.9%
- 44th pct
share of the chances while he was out there
share of the attempts while he was out there
Goals while he was on the ice: 52 for, 63 against. Expected: 53.2 and 57.5.
The eye and the numbers
HindsightThe two rank him within 1 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.
Both bars are percentiles among the 649 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 58 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.
Tracked
NHL Edge, 2021-22 · 82 games
- Top speed
- 21.9 mph
- 40th pct
- Bursts over 20 mph
- 1.16 a game
- Distance
- 2.86 miles a game
- Hardest shot
- 85.6 mph
- 43rd pct
fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.0
how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes
skated, all strengths
one shot; the league's average best is 84.1
A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.
Usual linemates
2021-22 · 1193 minutes at five-on-five
- Dylan Larkin78%
Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.
Why the numbers land there
Five-on-five, 2021-22
- The club
- DET took 45.4% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 48.0% — 2.6 above the club he did it on.
- The role
- First line, 1,193 minutes at five-on-five — 85th percentile in ice time.
With and without
| Teammate | Together | Him apart | Mate apart |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dylan Larkin | 48.5% | 46.3% | 52.9% |
| Tyler Bertuzzi | 51.7% | 43.7% | 46.5% |
| Moritz Seider | 45.4% | 50.1% | 45.4% |
48.5% together, 46.3% for him apart and 52.9% for Larkin apart. Larkin was better away from him while his own share held, which is a mark against him more than for him.
Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.
Where he shoots from
goal on goal missed
223 unblocked shots in 2021-22, 25 of them goals. His median goal came from 20 feet. 43% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 14% from beyond forty.