Armchair Hockey Scout

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2022-23 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2022-23 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

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59

Tyler Bertuzzi

Detroit Red Wings Left Wing

Thirty goals in 68 games from the 33rd-closest shot chart of the 393 qualified forwards — and the 20th-fewest sprints over 20 mph.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2016-17DET7000-1000030.09:06
2017-18DET4871724-739101838.414:24
2018-19DET73212647+113630413116.016:31
2019-20DET71212748-234030112916.319:19
2020-21DET9527043012025.019:37
2021-22DET68303262-114761518016.719:52
2022-23 so far—————————————
Career—27684104188-311661611254615.417:36

This Season So Far

The 2022-23 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

30 goals and 32 assists in 68 games — 62 points, a career high, with a minus-11 and 47 penalty minutes at 19:52 a night, the 93rd percentile among forwards.

49.7 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 1,037 minutes, the 52nd percentile — the best of any Detroit forward. His ice went 53-52 against an expectation of 48-48.56.

The Finesse Game

64 per cent of his shots came from the slot, the 91st percentile, at a median of 18 feet — the 33rd-closest shot chart of the 393 qualified forwards. He scores from the paint and nowhere else, and 30 goals on 180 shots is 16.7 per cent, the 89th percentile, which is what that shot chart is supposed to produce.

2.51 even-strength points per 60 is the 82nd percentile, with 23 per cent of his points on the power play — ordinary, and another Detroit forward whose production is not borrowed from the man advantage.

2.53 giveaways per 60 is the 30th-most of the 393 qualified forwards against 1.87 takeaways at the 66th. He holds the puck in traffic and pays for it.

The Physical Game

6-2 and 200.

1.4 bursts over 20 mph per 60 is the 20th-fewest of the 365 forwards the tracking covers, and 9.07 miles per 60 is the 41st-lowest. His 22.5 mph top speed is the 51st percentile. He almost never sprints and he covers less ground than nine-tenths of the league, and he scored thirty goals from the slot. Those two facts belong in the same sentence: he does not get there fast, he gets there and stays.

1.38 penalties drawn per 60 is the 39th-most of 393, against 0.80 taken — plus-0.58 net, the 91st percentile. Standing in the crease is a way of being fouled, and he is fouled a great deal.

2.89 hits per 60 is the 35th percentile. The reputation is for a physical game and the hit count does not carry it; the penalties drawn do.

The Intangibles

Fifty-eighth overall in 2013, the second round, and 276 NHL games at 27 with 84 goals.

Nine games in 2020-21 and sixty-eight last season, which is the shape of the record: he has played seventy games once in six years. Availability is the question the counting stats cannot answer and the one that decides what he is worth.

With Lucas Raymond he took 51.7 per cent over 1,160 attempts and 46.5 without; with Dylan Larkin 51.5 over 976 and 47.8 without; with Pius Suter 54.0 over 515. He improves everyone he plays with and there is no line on this club he does not improve.

With Filip Hronek he is at 53.0 and without him 47.7. That is the other half of the Detroit blue-line argument and it keeps coming back the same way.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed
  • he lacks itraised, and he does not have it

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • slot-man· shoots from where goals are scored

    64.5% of his attempts in the slot, 91st percentile among forwards

    Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.69) · 44% keep it

  • drives-play· the shot clock turns his way while he is out there

    49.7% of the expected goals at five-on-five with him on, 43.8% for his club in the minutes he sat: +5.9, 92nd percentile among forwards

    Season to season, this measure repeats moderately (0.39) · 29% keep it

  • workhorse· carries the load at even strength

    15:15 a game at five-on-five, 96th percentile among forwards

    Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.78) · 58% keep it

  • net-fronta strength· lives in the blue paint; the screens and the tips

    “he does not get there fast, he gets there and stays”

  • wins-the-walla strength· the corners and below the goal line

    “Standing in the crease is a way of being fouled, and he is fouled a great deal.”

  • punishinghe lacks it· finishes checks; hurts people legally

    “The reputation is for a physical game and the hit count does not carry it; the penalties drawn do.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2021-22 · 1,037 minutes

Expected goals
49.7%
55th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
48.8%
43rd pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 53 for, 52 against. Expected: 48.0 and 48.6.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
81st
Numbers
55th

The report ranks him 26 points above where the numbers do. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.

Both bars are percentiles among the 649 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 68 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2021-22 · 68 games

Top speed
22.5 mph
66th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.0

Bursts over 20 mph
0.47 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
3.00 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
87.9 mph
54th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 84.1

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2021-22 · 1037 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2021-22

The club
DET took 45.4% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 49.7% — 4.3 above the club he did it on.
The role
First line, 1,037 minutes at five-on-five — 66th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Lucas Raymond51.7%46.5%43.7%
Dylan Larkin51.5%47.8%46.9%
Moritz Seider47.8%50.9%44.3%

51.7% together, 46.5% for him apart and 43.7% for Raymond apart. Both were worse apart, so whatever the two of them had together was doing real work.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

242 unblocked shots in 2021-22, 27 of them goals. His median goal came from 18 feet. 54% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 15% from beyond forty.