Armchair Hockey Scout

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2022-23 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2022-23 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

This is the 2022-23 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →

71

Jake Evans

Montreal Canadiens Center

A seventh-round pick killing 1:56 a night, with no power-play points and the only Montreal ice that was not outscored.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2019-20MTL13213+100001414.310:21
2020-21MTL4731013+229010555.511:50
2021-22MTL72131629-52200012410.515:36
2022-23 so far—————————————
Career—132182745-2510101939.313:45

This Season So Far

The 2022-23 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

13 goals and 16 assists in seventy-two games at 15:36 a night, minus-5, twenty-two penalty minutes. Two hundred and seventh overall in 2014 is close enough to undrafted, and he has made himself a 132-game NHL centre out of it.

The Finesse Game

Not one of his twenty-nine points came on the power play — he played nineteen seconds a night there. 1.75 even-strength points per 60 is the 46th percentile, all of it at even strength and on the kill.

6.63 shots per 60 is the 36th percentile at 10.5 per cent, 52 per cent from the slot at a 24-foot median. Modest and sensible.

2.08 takeaways per 60 is the 79th percentile.

48.1 per cent of the expected goals is the 35th percentile — which on this roster is second only to Brendan Gallagher among forwards. His ice went 39-38 against an expectation of 38.03-41.09: the only Montreal regular whose shifts were not outscored, on a club that conceded 319 goals.

Beside David Savard across 521 attempts he took 53.0 per cent of the chances; Savard away from him read 42.5. That is the largest positive effect any Montreal forward had on a defenceman, and it is a ten-point swing.

The Physical Game

4.70 hits per 60 is the 59th percentile and 1.98 blocks the 64th at 6-0 and 190.

He killed 1:56 a night, the 91st percentile among forwards, on the worst penalty kill in the league bar one. A club that finished 31st on the kill was leaning on him for it, and his even-strength record is the reason.

The Intangibles

21.8 mph is the 17th percentile and 8.4 bursts over 20 mph per 60 is the 80th, at 9.85 miles per 60, the 68th. He is slow and he sprints often, which is an unusual combination and reads like a man chasing rather than leading.

He is 26. On a last-place club he was the one forward whose ice broke even and the one the coach trusted short-handed, off a seventh-round pick. That is a fourth-line centre a good team would want and a bad team overuses, and this record cannot say which he is until he plays for a different one.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed
  • ordinaryraised, and called ordinary

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • penalty-killera strength· trusted a man short

    “He killed 1:56 a night, the 91st percentile among forwards, on the worst penalty kill in the league bar one.”

  • undraftedpresent and ordinary· arrived without a pick attached

    “Two hundred and seventh overall in 2014 is close enough to undrafted, and he has made himself a 132-game NHL centre out of it.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2021-22 · 941 minutes

Expected goals
48.1%
39th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
48.6%
42nd pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 39 for, 38 against. Expected: 38.0 and 41.1.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
38th
Numbers
39th

The two rank him within 1 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 649 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 58 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2021-22 · 72 games

Top speed
21.8 mph
37th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.0

Bursts over 20 mph
2.18 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
2.56 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
89.6 mph
63rd pct

one shot; the league's average best is 84.1

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2021-22 · 941 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2021-22

The club
MTL took 46.2% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 48.1% — 1.9 above the club he did it on.
The role
Second line, 941 minutes at five-on-five — 55th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Alexander Romanov47.1%48.6%46.2%
Ben Chiarot46.7%48.7%49.3%
Rem Pitlick46.7%48.8%40.8%

47.1% together, 48.6% for him apart and 46.2% for Romanov apart. Splitting them up moved neither man. Whatever is driving the share, it is not this pairing.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

149 unblocked shots in 2021-22, 12 of them goals. His median goal came from 21 feet. 41% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 23% from beyond forty.