Armchair Hockey Scout

Ask the book

2022-23 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2022-23 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

This is the 2022-23 edition — an archived read. Read the 2023-24 report →

20

Rem Pitlick

Montreal Canadiens Center

The 6th-fewest shots per 60 of 393 forwards, the 3rd-largest slot share, the 4th-shortest median distance and the 4th-highest shooting percentage.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2018-19NSH1000020000—9:43
2020-21NSH10022+34000110.011:18
2021-22MIN/MTL66152237-8240116523.114:59
2022-23 so far—————————————
Career—77152439-5300117619.714:26

This Season So Far

The 2022-23 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

15 goals and 22 assists in sixty-six games at 14:59 a night, minus-8, split between Minnesota and Montreal. Seventy-sixth overall in 2016, and 77 NHL games at 25.

The Finesse Game

This is the most extreme shot profile in the edition and every part of it points the same way.

3.94 shots per 60 is the 6th-fewest of the 393 qualified forwards. 74 per cent of his shots came from the slot — the 3rd-largest share of 393 forwards — at a 14-foot median that is the 4th-shortest in the league. 23.1 per cent shooting is the 4th-highest.

He takes almost no shots, all of them from the crease, and buries nearly a quarter. Fifteen goals on sixty-five shots.

2.48 even-strength points per 60 is the 81st percentile and three per cent of his points came on the power play. This was all even strength.

And then the environment. 43.0 per cent of the expected goals is the 6th percentile and 43.2 per cent of the attempts the 4th — among the worst in the league, and the deployment does not explain it: 45.4 per cent of his end-zone starts came in the attacking end, below even and entirely ordinary. His ice went 44-43 against an expectation of 31.52-41.84.

A man taking almost no shots, all of them from the crease, and scoring on nearly a quarter of them, while his ice was among the worst in hockey. No part of that is stable.

The Physical Game

1.52 hits per 60 is the 11th percentile and 0.30 penalties drawn per 60 the 5th. He is not in the physical game and does not draw calls.

2.43 giveaways per 60 is the 90th percentile.

The Intangibles

9.6 bursts over 20 mph per 60 is the 86th percentile at 22.7 mph, the 70th, and 9.90 miles per 60 at the 72nd. He works and he is quick enough.

Thirty-seven points at 25 from a third-round pick with 77 NHL games is a genuinely good season and almost none of it will repeat in this form. A 23.1 per cent shooting rate on sixty-five shots is not a skill estimate. The parts to keep are the locations and the deployment he survived; the goals are the part to discount.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • slot-man· shoots from where goals are scored

    74.2% of his attempts in the slot, 99th percentile among forwards

    Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.69) · 44% keep it

  • clutch· scored his goals when the game was still live

    3 of his 15 goals late or in overtime, 96th percentile among forwards

    Season to season, this measure barely repeats (0.06) · 10% keep it

  • net-fronta strength· lives in the blue paint; the screens and the tips

    “74 per cent of his shots came from the slot — the 3rd-largest share of 393 forwards — at a 14-foot median that is the 4th-shortest in the league.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2021-22 · 821 minutes

Expected goals
43%
10th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
43.2%
7th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 44 for, 43 against. Expected: 31.5 and 41.8.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
26th
Numbers
10th

The two rank him within 16 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 649 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 55 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2021-22 · 66 games

Top speed
22.7 mph
80th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.0

Bursts over 20 mph
2.39 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
2.47 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
85.5 mph
42nd pct

one shot; the league's average best is 84.1

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2021-22 · 635 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2021-22

The club
MTL took 46.2% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 43.0% — 3.2 below the club he did it on.
The role
Second line, 821 minutes at five-on-five — 42nd percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Jake Evans46.7%40.8%48.8%
Alexander Romanov39.4%44.6%48.2%
Jeff Petry43.9%42.7%49.4%

46.7% together, 40.8% for him apart and 48.8% for Evans apart. He was worse away from Evans, who was no better away from him — he needed that pairing more than Evans did.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

89 unblocked shots in 2021-22, 17 of them goals. His median goal came from 13 feet. 66% of his shots came from inside twenty feet.