Adam Erne

This Season So Far

The 2022-23 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

6 goals and 13 assists in 79 games — 19 points, a minus-22 and 34 penalty minutes at 13:23 a night, the 27th percentile among forwards.

44.4 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 974 minutes, the 12th percentile — and 42.7 per cent of the shot attempts, the 13th-worst of the 393 qualified forwards. His ice went 28-43 against an expectation of 34.1-42.73.

The Finesse Game

1.16 even-strength points per 60 is the 14th percentile among forwards and six goals on 108 shots is 5.6 per cent, the 7th. 6.13 shots per 60 is the 29th. All three numbers are near the floor of the league.

57 per cent of his shots came from the slot at a median of 21 feet, which is the right place, and 5.6 per cent is what came of it.

Not one of his nineteen points arrived on the power play. He has five power-play goals in 294 NHL games.

1.13 giveaways per 60 is the 24th percentile — he is careful, and 1.36 takeaways at the 30th says he does not win pucks either.

The Physical Game

6-1 and 209. 9.14 hits per 60 is the 86th percentile among forwards and 2.44 blocks is the 82nd. At thirteen minutes a night that is a lot of contact per shift and it is the reason he dresses.

22.5 mph is the 52nd percentile and 6.8 bursts over 20 mph per 60 the 67th, with 9.75 miles per 60 at the 59th. A genuinely ordinary skater, which for a fourth-line forechecker is enough.

0.79 penalties taken per 60 is the 67th percentile — thirty-four minutes in seventy-nine games, roughly balanced by the 0.85 he draws.

38.5 per cent of his even-strength time was spent in the attacking zone, the 6th percentile among forwards. He spent last season in his own end.

The Intangibles

Thirty-third overall in 2013, the second round, and 294 NHL games at 27 with 71 points and a career minus-47.

Three seasons in Tampa without a role, then three in Detroit, and the best of them was 20 points in 45 games in 2020-21. The shot attempt share is the thing to hold on to: 42.7 per cent is the thirteenth-worst in the league, and a fourth-liner is expected to be under water, not that far under.

With Michael Rasmussen he took 44.8 per cent over 916 attempts. That was the club’s third line, and 916 attempts is a real sample, and 44.8 is what it produced.

A 27-year-old checker who hits, blocks, is careful with the puck and gets outshot this badly is worth exactly a fourth-line minute, and Detroit gave him a third-line one.