Armchair Hockey Scout

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2022-23 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2022-23 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

This is the 2022-23 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →

2

Brian Dumoulin

Pittsburgh Penguins Defense

The 10th-percentile top speed of 202 defencemen on the 75th-percentile penalty-killing load, and a career plus-97.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2013-14PIT6011+1400030.019:14
2014-15PIT810102000425.015:40
2015-16PIT7901616+11140001010.018:53
2016-17PIT7011415014000781.320:33
2017-18PIT8051318-5300011024.920:37
2018-19PIT7632023+3120000993.021:02
2019-20PIT28178+1710010352.921:03
2020-21PIT4141014+1812000508.022:21
2021-22PIT7631518+2424000913.321:49
2022-23 so far—————————————
Career—4641896114+971300115633.220:39

This Season So Far

The 2022-23 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

76 games, 3 goals and 15 assists at 21:49 a night, plus-24, twenty-four penalty minutes, 91 shots. Fifty-first overall in 2009 by Carolina, nine seasons, 464 games, 114 points, a career plus-97, all of it here.

The Finesse Game

0.73 even-strength points per 60 is the 26th percentile and none of his points came on the power play — four seconds a night. 3.29 shots per 60 is the 20th percentile at 3.3 per cent.

Eighty-eight per cent of his attempts came from outside the slot at a 53-foot median, the 77th percentile among defencemen, at 6-4 and 215 pounds.

1.23 takeaways per 60 against 1.66 giveaways, both close to the middle of the position — a quiet, unremarkable puck ledger, which on a roster carrying Jeff Petry and Evgeni Malkin is worth noting.

51.2 per cent of the expected goals and 48.8 per cent of the attempts, out of 51.7 per cent offensive-zone starts, the 284th-highest of the 652 skaters who took two hundred end-zone starts — dead level.

The pair is the file. He played 2,042 five-on-five attempts with Kris Letang, the largest pairing on the roster, and together they took 52.2 per cent of the expected goals. Apart, he is at 48.2 across 650 attempts and Letang at 51.1 across 891. Both men are better together and Dumoulin gains more.

The Physical Game

3.18 hits per 60 is the 38th percentile and 5.03 blocks the 74th. 0.25 penalties drawn per 60 is the 23rd percentile against 0.43 taken, and twenty-four penalty minutes came out of seventy-six games. Only Chad Ruhwedel took fewer on this blue line.

The Intangibles

2:22 short-handed a night is the 75th percentile among defencemen, on the club with the 3rd-smallest penalty-killing workload in the league.

21.1 mph is the 10th percentile among defencemen and 8.20 miles per 60 the 23rd. Slow, and not covering much ground either — two measurements in the bottom quarter of the position at 31.

He is 31 with 464 games and a career plus-97 on one club. The plus-minus, the pairing and the discipline are the case; the scoring rate, the shot volume and both skating figures are why he plays twenty-two minutes and not twenty-six.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • penalty-killera strength· trusted a man short

    “2:22 short-handed a night is the 75th percentile among defencemen, on the club with the 3rd-smallest penalty-killing workload in the league.”

  • defends-with-reacha strength· takes the puck before the contact happens

    “Eighty-eight per cent of his attempts came from outside the slot at a 53-foot median, the 77th percentile among defencemen, at 6-4 and 215 pounds.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2021-22 · 1,454 minutes

Expected goals
51.2%
64th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
48.8%
43rd pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 67 for, 53 against. Expected: 61.7 and 58.7.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
33rd
Numbers
64th

The numbers rank him 31 points above where the report does. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.

Both bars are percentiles among the 649 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 57 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2021-22 · 76 games

Top speed
21.1 mph
32nd pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 21.5

Bursts over 20 mph
0.46 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
2.98 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
90.5 mph
39th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 90.4

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2021-22 · 1454 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2021-22

The club
PIT took 53.5% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 51.2% — 2.3 below the club he did it on.
The role
First pair, 1,454 minutes at five-on-five — 96th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Kris Letang52.2%48.2%51.1%
Jake Guentzel52.5%50.2%54.2%
Sidney Crosby52.8%50.0%57.1%

52.2% together, 48.2% for him apart and 51.1% for Letang apart. He was worse away from Letang, who was no better away from him — he needed that pairing more than Letang did.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

132 unblocked shots in 2021-22, 3 of them goals. His median goal came from 39 feet. 8% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 77% from beyond forty.