Armchair Hockey Scout Beta

This is the 2025-26 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →

21

Nils Hoglander

Vancouver Canucks Left Wing

Five-foot-nine, 43 per cent of his attempts from inside 20 feet, and eight goals in a season that followed 24.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2020-21VAN56131427-41610111811.015:27
2021-22VAN6010818-6241001327.613:05
2022-23VAN25369-460002910.312:03
2023-24VAN80241236+235100512020.012:06
2024-25VAN7281725+530002839.612:08
2025-26 so far
Career2935857115+1412720848212.012:57

This Season So Far

The 2025-26 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

8 goals and 17 assists in 72 games — 25 points at 12:08 a night, plus-5, with 30 penalty minutes on 83 shots.

51.8 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five, the 69th percentile, across 770 minutes. His ice went 28-25 against an expectation of 26.87-25.01, which is a fourth line that got what it deserved on both sides.

The Finesse Game

83 attempts at a median of 24 feet with 43 per cent from inside 20, converting at 9.6 per cent. He scored 24 goals two seasons ago on a similar volume, so the finishing swings hard.

17 assists in 72 games. The hands in a small space are genuinely good and the offensive game has never held at a top-nine level for a full season.

The Physical Game

5-9 and 185 and he plays a great deal larger. He forechecks first, he finishes checks on defencemen who outweigh him considerably, and he is difficult to remove from a puck.

30 penalty minutes in 72 games at twelve minutes a night is a moderate rate. He is an irritant and a share of the total is the second penalty in a sequence he started.

The Intangibles

A second-round pick in 2019 out of Sweden and 293 games and 115 points, all of it here.

He is 24 and has scored 24, 24 and 8 goals in three seasons of wildly varying deployment. On a club that is 30th in the league at creating chances, twelve minutes a night for a player with those hands is difficult to defend.

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2024-25 · 770 minutes

Expected goals
51.8%
70th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
49.8%
50th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 28 for, 25 against. Expected: 26.9 and 25.0.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
60th
Numbers
70th

The two rank him within 10 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 637 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 74 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Usual linemates

2024-25 · 770 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2024-25

The club
VAN took 49.1% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 51.8% — 2.7 above the club he did it on.
The role
770 minutes at five-on-five — 34th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Quinn Hughes51.4%52.0%53.8%
Tyler Myers48.9%53.1%49.4%
Teddy Blueger46.0%54.0%46.0%

51.4% together, 52.0% for him apart and 53.8% for Hughes apart. Splitting them up moved neither man. Whatever is driving the share, it is not this pairing.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

113 unblocked shots in 2024-25, 8 of them goals. His median goal came from 21 feet. 43% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 17% from beyond forty.