This is the 2022-23 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →
Matt Boldy
Minnesota Wild Left Wing
Thirty-nine points in forty-seven rookie games, at the 22nd-slowest top speed of the 365 forwards the league tracks.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | PTS | +/- | PIM | PP | SH | GW | S | S% | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-22 | MIN | 47 | 15 | 24 | 39 | +17 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 113 | 13.3 | 15:23 |
| 2022-23 so far | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Career | — | 47 | 15 | 24 | 39 | +17 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 113 | 13.3 | 15:23 |
This Season So Far
The 2022-23 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.
Last Season
15 goals and 24 assists in forty-seven games at 15:23 a night, plus-17, ten penalty minutes. Twelfth overall in 2019, and this was all of it — forty-seven NHL games at 21.
Thirty-nine points in forty-seven games is a 68-point pace.
The Finesse Game
2.84 even-strength points per 60 is the 91st percentile of forwards — the same rate as Mats Zuccarello, in a rookie season, at fifteen minutes a night. Twenty-six per cent of his points came on the power play.
9.38 shots per 60 is the 82nd percentile at 13.3 per cent, from a 30-foot median at the 91st with 42 per cent from the slot at the 17th. He shoots from range, often, and it went in at an ordinary rate.
Twenty-four assists in forty-seven games and 2.24 takeaways per 60 at the 86th percentile, from a 21-year-old on his first NHL contract.
56.6 per cent of the expected goals is the 90th percentile against 51.0 per cent of the attempts at the 61st — he was on for better chances than attempts, which is the right way round. His ice went 42-24 against an expectation of 27.36-21.01.
Across 970 attempts with Kevin Fiala he took 58.3 per cent of the chances, and Fiala has now left. That is the single most important fact about his next season and the data cannot say how it resolves.
The Physical Game
1.91 hits per 60 is the 19th percentile and 1.99 blocks the 65th, at 6-2 and 201. Ten penalty minutes in forty-seven games. There is nothing here yet and at 21 there does not have to be.
The Intangibles
21.4 mph is the 22nd-slowest top speed of the 365 forwards the tracking covers, and 3.2 bursts over 20 mph per 60 is the 21st percentile. He covers ordinary ground, 9.63 miles per 60 at the 48th.
A 21-year-old scoring at a 68-point pace while ranking among the two dozen slowest forwards in the league is the most interesting single line in this chapter. It is also the one the tracking is least equipped to interpret — a top speed is a season maximum, and he had forty-seven games to set one where most of the men above him had eighty.
The scoring rate is real and the sample is half a season. Everything about him argues for patience in one direction only.
What kind of player
The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.
- a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed
Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.
“Twenty-four assists in forty-seven games and 2.24 takeaways per 60 at the 86th percentile, from a 21-year-old on his first NHL contract.”
The numbers underneath
On the ice
Five-on-five, 2021-22 · 606 minutes
- Expected goals
- 56.6%
- 93rd pct
- Shot attempts
- 51%
- 65th pct
share of the chances while he was out there
share of the attempts while he was out there
Goals while he was on the ice: 42 for, 24 against. Expected: 27.4 and 21.0.
The eye and the numbers
HindsightThe numbers rank him 40 points above where the report does. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.
Both bars are percentiles among the 649 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 61 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.
Tracked
NHL Edge, 2021-22 · 47 games
- Top speed
- 21.4 mph
- 23rd pct
- Bursts over 20 mph
- 0.81 a game
- Distance
- 2.47 miles a game
- Hardest shot
- 89.8 mph
- 65th pct
fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.0
how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes
skated, all strengths
one shot; the league's average best is 84.1
A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.
Usual linemates
2021-22 · 606 minutes at five-on-five
Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.
Why the numbers land there
Five-on-five, 2021-22
- The club
- MIN took 53.7% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 56.6% — 2.9 above the club he did it on.
- The role
- Third line, 606 minutes at five-on-five — 26th percentile in ice time.
With and without
| Teammate | Together | Him apart | Mate apart |
|---|---|---|---|
| Frederick Gaudreau | 55.9% | 60.1% | 49.9% |
| Alex Goligoski | 61.8% | 53.9% | 52.9% |
| Jonas Brodin | 61.1% | 54.3% | 55.1% |
55.9% together, 60.1% for him apart and 49.9% for Gaudreau apart. He was carrying it: the share stayed with him and left Gaudreau behind.
Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.
Where he shoots from
goal on goal missed
144 unblocked shots in 2021-22, 15 of them goals. His median goal came from 21 feet. 33% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 28% from beyond forty.