Armchair Hockey Scout

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2022-23 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2022-23 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

This is the 2022-23 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →

37

Warren Foegele

Edmonton Oilers Left Wing

The 20th-most takeaways of the 393 qualified forwards, at twelve and a half minutes a night.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2017-18CAR2213+30000633.311:56
2018-19CAR7710515-17200031069.412:30
2019-20CAR68131730+93403112910.113:43
2020-21CAR53101020+4200019111.014:09
2021-22EDM82121426-9242031428.512:37
2022-23 so far—————————————
Career—282474794-10982384749.913:08

This Season So Far

The 2022-23 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

12 goals and 14 assists in 82 games — 26 points, a minus-9 and 24 penalty minutes at 12:37 a night, the 19th percentile among forwards.

50.9 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 984 minutes, the 59th percentile, and 53.8 per cent of the attempts, the 80th.

Thirteen playoff games for one assist.

The Finesse Game

2.55 takeaways per 60 is the 20th-most of the 393 qualified forwards — the best figure on this page and the reason he plays. 1.68 giveaways is the 61st percentile, so the ledger is strongly positive.

8.24 shots per 60 is the 65th percentile and twelve goals on 142 shots is 8.5 per cent, the 24th. 51 per cent came from the slot at a median of 24 feet — ordinary places, poor conversion.

1.41 even-strength points per 60 is the 27th percentile and 0:33 a night on the power play. Twenty-six points is what twelve minutes and a bad shooting year produce together.

The Physical Game

6-2 and 205. 7.37 hits per 60 is the 78th percentile among forwards and 0.87 blocks is the 9th — he forechecks and he does not defend, which at his ice time is the assignment.

8.4 bursts over 20 mph per 60 is the 79th percentile and 9.83 miles per 60 is the 65th, against a 22.7 mph top speed at the 68th. Everything about the skating is above average and nothing about it is exceptional.

43.5 per cent of his even-strength time was spent in the attacking zone, the 89th percentile. He is a fourth-liner who spends his shifts in the other team’s end.

0.70 penalties taken per 60 is the 56th percentile — twenty-four minutes in eighty-two games.

The Intangibles

Sixty-seventh overall in 2014, the third round, and 282 NHL games at 26 with 94 points.

Four Carolina seasons at thirteen minutes and one here. The record is a bottom-six forechecker who has never been given a scoring role and has never asked for one.

With Ryan McLeod he took 58.8 per cent of the chances over 388 attempts and 49.1 without him. Four hundred attempts is a fragment; it is also the best number either man posted.

Taking the puck off people at the 20th-highest rate in the league at twelve minutes a night is an unusual and undervalued thing. Nothing else on this page is above average and that one is near the top of it.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • durable· was available

    82 of 82 games

    Season to season, this measure repeats weakly (0.32) · 53% keep it

  • forechecks-aggressivelya strength· first man in, and on the puck

    “he forechecks and he does not defend, which at his ice time is the assignment”

  • wins-the-walla strength· the corners and below the goal line

    “Taking the puck off people at the 20th-highest rate in the league at twelve minutes a night is an unusual and undervalued thing.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2021-22 · 984 minutes

Expected goals
50.9%
62nd pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
53.8%
83rd pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 36 for, 43 against. Expected: 40.3 and 38.8.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
48th
Numbers
62nd

The two rank him within 14 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 649 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 60 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2021-22 · 82 games

Top speed
22.7 mph
78th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.0

Bursts over 20 mph
1.76 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
2.07 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
89.6 mph
64th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 84.1

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2021-22 · 984 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2021-22

The club
EDM took 51.3% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 50.9% — 0.4 below the club he did it on.
The role
Third line, 984 minutes at five-on-five — 59th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Evan Bouchard53.0%49.4%52.7%
Derek Ryan49.5%51.9%54.4%
Darnell Nurse56.8%48.0%52.2%

53.0% together, 49.4% for him apart and 52.7% for Bouchard apart. He was worse away from Bouchard, who was no better away from him — he needed that pairing more than Bouchard did.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

187 unblocked shots in 2021-22, 12 of them goals. His median goal came from 12 feet. 44% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 19% from beyond forty.