Armchair Hockey Scout

Ask the book

2022-23 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2022-23 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

44

Zack Kassian

Arizona Coyotes Right Wing

Thirteen and a half hits per 60 at the 96th percentile, 0.53 blocks at the 1st, and a penalty differential at the 1st percentile among forwards.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2011-12BUF/VAN444610-251000547.411:18
2012-13VAN397411-7512014914.313:29
2013-14VAN73141529-41241029115.412:56
2014-15VAN4210616-5811035518.212:37
2015-16EDM36358-7114000427.112:27
2016-17EDM7971724+41010001106.412:18
2017-18EDM7471219-892000868.111:40
2018-19EDM79151126-610201311113.514:48
2019-20EDM591519340690019915.215:40
2020-21EDM27235-4150001811.111:51
2021-22EDM5861319+2632015810.311:47
2022-23 so far—————————————
Career—61090111201-37863611177311.612:55

This Season So Far

The 2022-23 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

With Edmonton. 6 goals and 13 assists in 58 games — 19 points at 11:47 a night, plus-2, with 2 power-play goals on 58 shots and 63 penalty minutes.

48.2 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 663 minutes, the 36th percentile — and 51.3 per cent of the shot attempts, the 64th. His ice went 30-29 against an expectation of 26-27.93. Playing behind Connor McDavid’s club flatters everybody, and this is the least flattered version of it: fourth-line minutes at the 10th percentile of ice time.

The Finesse Game

58 attempts at a median of 18 feet, 57 per cent from inside 20, converting at 10.3 per cent. 5.09 shots per 60 is the 13th percentile. He goes to the net and he does not shoot, which for a man of 6-3 and 211 is a strange combination and has been for a decade.

90 goals in 610 career games. There has never been much here and there is less now.

The Physical Game

13.52 hits per 60 is the 96th percentile among forwards. Only a handful of men in hockey finish more checks, and it is the whole job.

0.53 blocks per 60 is the 1st percentile. He hits and he does nothing else defensively, which is a real distinction: a physical forward who does not put himself in front of a puck is a physical forward in the offensive zone only.

1.67 penalties taken per 60 is the 94th percentile and 863 penalty minutes in 610 games is the career behind it, against 0.88 drawn — minus-0.79 net, the 1st percentile. On Arizona’s penalty kill, that arithmetic is worse than it was in Edmonton.

Top speed 22.6 mph at the 61st percentile with 7.9 bursts above 20 mph per 60 at the 76th. He is quicker than he looks and always has been.

The Intangibles

Thirteenth overall in 2009 by Buffalo, and 610 games across Buffalo, Vancouver, Montreal, Edmonton and now Arizona, with a reputation that has followed him to all of them.

He is 31, and Arizona took him from Edmonton because Edmonton needed the cap space. This club is now the place contending teams send contracts they regret, and Kassian is the clearest example on the roster: two years left, no role that helps a rebuild, and a penalty differential the worst penalty kill in hockey cannot absorb.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed
  • he lacks itraised, and he does not have it

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • punishinga strength· finishes checks; hurts people legally

    “13.52 hits per 60 is the 96th percentile among forwards”

  • retaliateshe lacks it· answers the cross-check, and takes the second penalty

    “1.67 penalties taken per 60 is the 94th percentile and 863 penalty minutes in 610 games is the career behind it”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2021-22 · 663 minutes

Expected goals
48.2%
40th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
51.3%
67th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 30 for, 29 against. Expected: 26.0 and 27.9.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
22nd
Numbers
40th

The two rank him within 18 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 649 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 54 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2021-22 · 58 games

Top speed
22.6 mph
74th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.0

Bursts over 20 mph
1.55 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
1.89 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
89.2 mph
61st pct

one shot; the league's average best is 84.1

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2021-22 with EDM · 663 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2021-22

The club
EDM took 51.3% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 48.2% — 3.1 below the club he did it on.
The role
663 minutes at five-on-five — 29th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Warren Foegele50.3%46.9%51.1%
Evan Bouchard48.2%48.2%53.7%
Cody Ceci45.4%49.6%52.5%

50.3% together, 46.9% for him apart and 51.1% for Foegele apart. He was worse away from Foegele, who was no better away from him — he needed that pairing more than Foegele did.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

80 unblocked shots in 2021-22, 6 of them goals. His median goal came from 19 feet. 55% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 20% from beyond forty.