Armchair Hockey Scout

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2022-23 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2022-23 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

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2

Evan Bouchard

Edmonton Oilers Defense

The 5th-most shots per 60 of the 202 qualified defencemen, the 15th-most even-strength points, and the 7th-most giveaways.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2018-19EDM7101-521001010.012:21
2020-21EDM14235-22100385.314:50
2021-22EDM81123143+10282012055.919:48
2022-23 so far—————————————
Career—102153449+3324012535.918:36

This Season So Far

The 2022-23 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

12 goals and 31 assists in 81 games — 43 points and a plus-10 at 19:48 a night, the 50th percentile among defencemen — in his first full NHL season, at 22.

52.8 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 1,361 minutes, the 74th percentile, and 55.4 per cent of the attempts, the 89th.

Sixteen playoff games for three goals and six assists.

The Finesse Game

7.67 shots per 60 is the 5th-most of the 202 qualified defencemen. Two hundred and five shots in eighty-one games from a second-pair defenceman, at 98.4 mph, the 32nd-hardest of the 192 the tracking covers.

1.54 even-strength points per 60 is the 15th-highest of 202 — elite, and only 16 per cent of his points came on the power play, so it is not a unit’s doing.

The median travels 53 feet and 6 per cent come from the slot. This is a pure point shot taken at enormous volume with a very hard release, and the twelve goals are the product of all three.

2.95 giveaways per 60 is the 7th-most of the 202 qualified defencemen, against 1.38 takeaways at the 84th. He has the puck constantly and he loses it constantly, which is what a 22-year-old carrying that much of the offence produces.

The Physical Game

6-3 and 192, which is light. 2.99 hits per 60 is the 37th percentile among defencemen and 4.19 blocks is the 51st. He does not play a contact game.

22.4 mph is the 71st percentile and 2.1 bursts over 20 mph per 60 is the 67th, with 8.36 miles per 60 at the 38th. Ordinary at all three, which for a defenceman whose whole value is the shot and the first pass is neither surprising nor a problem.

0.52 penalties taken per 60 is the 36th percentile — twenty-eight minutes in eighty-one games, at nearly twenty a night.

45.0 per cent of his even-strength time was spent in the attacking zone, the 93rd percentile among defencemen — the highest of any Oiler defenceman.

The Intangibles

Tenth overall in 2018, and 102 NHL games at 22 — seven, fourteen and eighty-one.

With Darnell Nurse he took 58.2 per cent of the chances over 1,038 attempts and 49.3 without him. With Connor McDavid 59.9 over 992 and 48.0 without. Both gaps are large and both point the same way, which is the honest frame for a 43-point season: this is a real shot and a real first pass, played beside the best player in the world and the club’s best defenceman.

Duncan Keith, with whom he took 49.4 per cent over 872 attempts, is off the roster. That was the pairing that dragged, and its removal is the most straightforward improvement on the Edmonton blue line.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • durable· was available

    81 of 82 games

    Season to season, this measure repeats weakly (0.32) · 53% keep it

  • transitiona strength· carries it out; gains the line under control

    “He has the puck constantly and he loses it constantly”

  • playmakera strength· passes up the shot a scorer takes

    “This is a pure point shot taken at enormous volume with a very hard release, and the twelve goals are the product of all three.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2021-22 · 1,361 minutes

Expected goals
52.8%
75th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
55.4%
89th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 60 for, 58 against. Expected: 63.8 and 57.0.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
67th
Numbers
75th

The two rank him within 8 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 649 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 64 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2021-22 · 81 games

Top speed
22.4 mph
80th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 21.5

Bursts over 20 mph
0.70 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
2.76 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
98.4 mph
88th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 90.4

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2021-22 · 1361 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2021-22

The club
EDM took 51.3% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 52.8% — 1.5 above the club he did it on.
The role
First pair, 1,361 minutes at five-on-five — 92nd percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Darnell Nurse58.2%49.3%50.2%
Connor McDavid59.9%48.0%55.9%
Duncan Keith49.4%54.4%49.3%

58.2% together, 49.3% for him apart and 50.2% for Nurse apart. Both were worse apart, so whatever the two of them had together was doing real work.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

270 unblocked shots in 2021-22, 12 of them goals. His median goal came from 43 feet. 4% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 79% from beyond forty.