Armchair Hockey Scout

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2022-23 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2022-23 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

This is the 2022-23 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →

71

Ryan McLeod

Edmonton Oilers Center

The most ground covered of the 365 forwards the tracking follows, the 5th-most sprints over 20 mph — and the 6th-softest shot.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2020-21EDM10011-2000030.012:47
2021-22EDM7191221-2122018211.012:46
2022-23 so far—————————————
Career—8191322-4122018510.612:46

This Season So Far

The 2022-23 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

9 goals and 12 assists in 71 games — 21 points, a minus-2 and 12 penalty minutes at 12:46 a night, the 21st percentile among forwards.

49.0 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 782 minutes, the 44th percentile, and 53.9 per cent of the attempts, the 81st. That gap is a fourth line that gets the puck up the ice and does not get to the middle with it.

Sixteen playoff games for three goals and an assist.

The Finesse Game

5.43 shots per 60 is the 17th percentile among forwards and nine goals on 82 shots is 11.0 per cent, the 45th.

80.1 mph is the 6th-softest recorded shot of the 365 qualified forwards. Only five forwards in the qualified pool shot softer, and two of them — Derek Ryan and Mattias Janmark — are now his team-mates. A shot that soft at that volume is not a scoring tool and the club does not treat it as one.

2.58 takeaways per 60 is the 95th percentile against 2.72 giveaways at the 94th. He is involved in the puck constantly at twelve minutes a night and the ledger is roughly even.

1.24 even-strength points per 60 is the 19th percentile.

The Physical Game

6-3 and 204, and this is the file worth the page.

10.97 miles per 60 is the most ground covered of the 365 forwards the tracking follows — more than Connor McDavid, more than anyone in the league. 19.5 bursts over 20 mph per 60 is the 5th-most, against a 23.2 mph top speed at the 88th percentile.

A fourth-line centre who covers more ground than every forward in the league and sprints more often than all but four of them is a real and specific asset, and it is one no scout could have measured before the chips.

1.85 hits per 60 is the 18th percentile. He does not use any of that to hit people.

0.40 penalties taken per 60 is the 21st percentile — twelve minutes in seventy-one games.

The Intangibles

Fortieth overall in 2018, the second round, and 81 NHL games at 23.

With Warren Foegele he took 58.8 per cent of the chances over 388 attempts and 45.4 without him — the largest gap on his page, on a small sample, and it belongs to the fourth line.

With Duncan Keith he took 46.7 per cent over 356 attempts, and Keith is off the roster.

A 23-year-old fourth-line centre with the legs of a first-line one and the shot of a defensive defenceman. The question is whether anything gets added to the middle of that, and one season at twelve minutes has not been asked to answer it.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • edgesa strength· changes direction at speed; the forechecker commits and he is gone

    “A fourth-line centre who covers more ground than every forward in the league and sprints more often than all but four of them is a real and specific asset”

  • transitiona strength· carries it out; gains the line under control

    “He is involved in the puck constantly at twelve minutes a night and the ledger is roughly even.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2021-22 · 782 minutes

Expected goals
49%
48th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
53.9%
83rd pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 24 for, 26 against. Expected: 27.0 and 28.1.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
22nd
Numbers
48th

The numbers rank him 26 points above where the report does. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.

Both bars are percentiles among the 649 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 54 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2021-22 · 71 games

Top speed
23.2 mph
92nd pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.0

Bursts over 20 mph
4.14 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
2.33 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
80.1 mph
21st pct

one shot; the league's average best is 84.1

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2021-22 · 782 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2021-22

The club
EDM took 51.3% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 49.0% — 2.3 below the club he did it on.
The role
Third line, 782 minutes at five-on-five — 40th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Evan Bouchard48.8%49.1%53.6%
Cody Ceci51.1%47.9%51.5%
Darnell Nurse49.9%48.5%53.6%

48.8% together, 49.1% for him apart and 53.6% for Bouchard apart. Bouchard was better away from him while his own share held, which is a mark against him more than for him.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

107 unblocked shots in 2021-22, 9 of them goals. His median goal came from 11 feet. 47% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 16% from beyond forty.