This is the 2022-23 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →

Tyler Toffoli

Twenty goals and 49 points across two clubs, at 50.6 per cent of the chances — the 57th percentile.

Season	Team	GP	G	A	PTS	+/-	PIM	PP	SH	GW	S	S%	TOI

2012-13	LAK	10	2	3	5	+3	2	1	0	0	20	10.0	11:59
2013-14	LAK	62	12	17	29	+21	10	1	0	5	124	9.7	12:56
2014-15	LAK	76	23	26	49	+25	37	3	5	3	200	11.5	14:35
2015-16	LAK	82	31	27	58	+35	20	9	1	4	213	14.5	17:19
2016-17	LAK	63	16	18	34	+6	22	4	0	2	165	9.7	16:35
2017-18	LAK	82	24	23	47	+9	16	6	0	6	251	9.6	16:07
2018-19	LAK	82	13	21	34	-16	23	3	0	3	226	5.8	17:13
2019-20	LAK/VAN	68	24	20	44	-1	20	5	0	4	203	11.8	16:51
2020-21	MTL	52	28	16	44	0	24	7	2	5	158	17.7	17:31
2021-22	MTL/CGY	74	20	29	49	-5	14	8	2	1	195	10.3	16:18
2022-23 so far	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Career	—	651	193	200	393	+77	188	47	10	33	1755	11.0	16:07

This Season So Far

The 2022-23 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

20 goals and 29 assists in 74 games for Montreal and here — 49 points at 16:18 a night, minus-5, with 14 penalty minutes.

50.6 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 924 minutes, the 57th percentile among forwards. His ice went 29-36 against an expectation of 38.19-37.31 — nine fewer goals for than the chances promised.

He arrived at the deadline from a Montreal club that finished 32nd, which is most of what the 50.6 per cent is describing.

The Finesse Game

9.70 shots per 60 is the 86th percentile among forwards at 10.3 per cent, from a median of 27 feet with 44 per cent from the slot. 33 per cent of his points came on the power play, the 84th percentile, on 2:26 a night at the 70th.

1.90 even-strength points per 60 is the 58th percentile. He is a volume shooter whose finishing has swung between 10 and 18 per cent across a ten-year career, and the goal totals swing with it.

The Physical Game

6-0 and 205, 4.03 hits and 1.19 blocks per 60, the 53rd and 24th percentiles among forwards. He is neither physical nor avoiding it.

0.35 penalties taken per 60 is the 15th percentile — 14 penalty minutes in 74 games. He is one of the cleanest top-six forwards in the league and has been for a decade: 188 penalty minutes in 651 career games.

9.12 miles per 60 is the 13th percentile among forwards. He covers very little ground, which for a shooter who waits in the same spot is the shape you would expect.

The Intangibles

Forty-seventh overall in 2010 by Los Angeles, a Stanley Cup at twenty-two, and 651 games with 393 points at 30.

With Andrew Mangiapane on the ice he took 52.1 per cent and Mangiapane without him 61.7, across 519 attempts — which is a warning about where he fits rather than a verdict. He is the right-shot scoring winger this club has lacked for years, and the club that lacked it just lost 219 points of left wing in a single summer.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

perimeter· shoots from the outside, by choice or because he cannot get in
28.6% of his attempts from 40 feet or beyond, 90th percentile among forwards
Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.66) · 50% keep it
net-fronta strength· lives in the blue paint; the screens and the tips
“He covers very little ground, which for a shooter who waits in the same spot is the shape you would expect.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2021-22 · 924 minutes

Expected goals: 50.6%; 60th pct
Shot attempts: 51.1%; 66th pct

Goals while he was on the ice: 29 for, 36 against. Expected: 38.2 and 37.3.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight

Report

53rd

Numbers

60th

The two rank him within 7 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 649 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 61 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2021-22 · 74 games

Top speed: 22.4 mph; 65th pct
Bursts over 20 mph: 1.16 a game
Distance: 2.48 miles a game
Hardest shot: 93.3 mph; 83rd pct

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2021-22 with MTL · 484 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2021-22

The club: CGY took 55.2% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 50.6% — 4.6 below the club he did it on.
The role: 924 minutes at five-on-five — 53rd percentile in ice time.

With and without

Teammate	Together	Him apart	Mate apart
Nick Suzuki	49.5%	51.1%	44.2%
Andrew Mangiapane	52.1%	50.0%	61.7%
Mikael Backlund	48.7%	51.2%	58.0%

49.5% together, 51.1% for him apart and 44.2% for Suzuki apart. Suzuki was worse away from him while his own share held — the pairing was doing more for Suzuki than for him.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

248 unblocked shots in 2021-22, 20 of them goals. His median goal came from 24 feet. 36% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 28% from beyond forty.