Armchair Hockey Scout Beta

This is the 2025-26 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →

13

Sam Reinhart

Florida Panthers Center

39 goals on an 18.3 per cent rate, 5 shorthanded, and a 57.2 per cent chance share.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2014-15BUF9011-1200030.010:22
2015-16BUF79231942-8880316513.916:50
2016-17BUF79173047-1189031789.617:13
2017-18BUF82252550-2426120518813.317:06
2018-19BUF82224365-101620118012.218:57
2019-20BUF69222850-152050214415.320:38
2020-21BUF54251540-2810100513019.219:32
2021-22FLA78334982+2513160618617.717:46
2022-23FLA82313667-1212160522713.719:47
2023-24FLA82573794+29312751123324.520:18
2024-25FLA79394281+627135421318.320:30
2025-26 so far
Career775294325619-491731181045184715.918:43

This Season So Far

The 2025-26 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

39 goals and 42 assists in 79 games for 81 points, plus-6, on 20:30 a night with 13 on the power play and 5 shorthanded — the most points on the club.

57.2 per cent at five-on-five, the 97th percentile. 48 per cent of his shots came from inside 20 feet at a median of 21, which is why 18.3 per cent conversion is more believable from him than from almost anybody else in this edition.

The Finesse Game

A shooter whose whole game is arriving in the right place a half-second early. The release is quick and accurate rather than heavy, and the value is in the location: he does not take a shot from 40 feet if he can take one from 20.

42 assists is the equal half and it comes from an unusually good sense of when to give it up. He is also the league’s most reliable shorthanded scorer — 5 goals a man down — which is a specific and rare skill.

The Physical Game

6-1 and 196, and honest rather than heavy. He goes to the net front on the power play and takes the punishment, and he does not win pucks on the wall by force.

27 penalty minutes over 79 games. The durability is exceptional — six consecutive seasons above 75 games.

The Intangibles

A 2nd overall pick who was written off in Buffalo, traded for very little, and has since scored 57 and 39 goals on two Cup winners.

At 29 on a long contract, he is the safest bet on this roster. With Barkov out, he becomes the first-line centre by necessity, and the one thing he does not do is take the hardest defensive matchup.

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2024-25 · 1,092 minutes

Expected goals
57.2%
97th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
58%
96th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 39 for, 33 against. Expected: 45.0 and 33.7.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
93rd
Numbers
97th

The two rank him within 4 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 357 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 82 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Usual linemates

2024-25 · 1092 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2024-25

The club
FLA took 54.0% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 57.2% — 3.2 above the club he did it on.
The role
First line, 1,092 minutes at five-on-five — 75th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Aleksander Barkov59.6%50.0%50.2%
Gustav Forsling58.3%55.7%50.3%
Aaron Ekblad58.9%55.9%50.2%

59.6% together, 50.0% for him apart and 50.2% for Barkov apart. Both were worse apart, so whatever the two of them had together was doing real work.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

331 unblocked shots in 2024-25, 40 of them goals. His median goal came from 19 feet. 48% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 16% from beyond forty.