Armchair Hockey Scout

Ask the book

2026-27 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2026-27 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

Ryan McDonagh

Photo by Resolute, CC BY-SA 3.0

Ryan McDonagh

Tampa Bay Lightning Defense #27

1,058 games, and 6 penalty minutes in 48 of them.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2010-11NYR40189+1614001273.718:44
2011-12NYR8272532+25440011235.724:44
2012-13NYR4741519+1322001834.824:21
2013-14NYR77142943+11362341777.924:49
2014-15NYR7182533+23263021485.423:08
2015-16NYR7392534+26222001138.022:21
2016-17NYR7763642+20371111533.924:21
2017-18NYR/TBL6342529+820100994.023:20
2018-19TBL8293746+38340011287.022:05
2019-20TBL5011112+719000502.020:42
2020-21TBL504812+1314000854.721:54
2021-22TBL7142226+1516000854.722:27
2022-23NSH7121820+1222001782.621:32
2023-24NSH7432932+1931001913.321:47
2024-25TBL8242731+4322012785.120:22
2025-26TBL4861521+1460003915.419:15
2026-27 so far—————————————
Career—105886355441+303385951515575.522:25

This Season So Far

The 2026-27 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

6 goals and 15 assists in 48 games — 21 points, plus-14, at 19:15 a night with 6 penalty minutes. 34 games missed.

His 1,058th career game.

He turned 37 in June.

The Finesse Game

69 unblocked attempts from a median of 52 feet, and 6 goals — an extraordinary conversion for a defenceman who barely shoots. 86 goals in 1,058 career games.

15 assists in 48 games is a fair rate. The first pass is quick and the reads are the reason a 37-year-old is still taking 19 minutes on a contender.

The Physical Game

6-1, 216, and he defends by position and by stick. 6 penalty minutes across 48 games is the fourth-lowest rate of any defenceman who played 40 times — a man past 1,000 career games who took 3 minor penalties all season.

He still clears his crease. The skating is honest and no longer quick.

The Intangibles

53.3 per cent of the expected goals, 78th percentile, and 50.3 per cent of the shot attempts, 60th, across 746 minutes, with the goals 34-28 in his favour.

34 games missed is the story and it is now 2 seasons running.

8 points in his last 10. He is 37, 2 Stanley Cups, and one of the two or three most respected defensive defencemen of his generation. Tampa is carrying him, Hedman and Carlson at 37, 35 and 36 on the same blue line, which is either depth or a plan that requires all 3 to be healthy in May.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • disciplined· stays out of the box

    0.13 penalty minutes a game over 48, 2nd percentile among defencemen

    Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.75) · 35% keep it

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2025-26 · 746 minutes

Expected goals
53.3%
79th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
50.3%
61st pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 34 for, 28 against. Expected: 31.7 and 27.8.

The eye and the numbers

Sighted
Report
73rd
Numbers
79th

The two rank him within 6 points of one another. It was written with these numbers on screen, so the agreement is not corroboration — the arithmetic is on both sides of it.

Both bars are percentiles among the 656 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 76 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2025-26 · 48 games

Top speed
21.0 mph
27th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 21.6

Bursts over 20 mph
0.35 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
2.58 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
88.6 mph
40th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 88.9

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Recent form

Last 20 appearances, 2025-26, oldest first

8

points in his last 10 games — 1 goals, 7 assists, 8 shots

Each bar is one game by points. Filled bars are games he scored in.

Usual linemates

2025-26 · 746 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2025-26

The club
TBL took 53.9% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 53.3% — 0.6 below the club he did it on.
The role
Third pair, 746 minutes at five-on-five — 34th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Erik Cernak52.0%55.4%52.0%
Yanni Gourde52.5%53.7%50.7%
Pontus Holmberg58.2%51.3%53.4%

52.0% together, 55.4% for him apart and 52.0% for Cernak apart. He was better away from Cernak, who was no worse away from him — the pairing cost him more than it cost Cernak.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

69 unblocked shots in 2025-26, 6 of them goals. His median goal came from 42 feet. 6% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 68% from beyond forty.