This is the 2025-26 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →
Pavel Mintyukov
Mighty Ducks of Anaheim Defense
A 21-year-old defenceman with a 43.7 per cent chance share, which is the 9th percentile in the league.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | PTS | +/- | PIM | PP | SH | GW | S | S% | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-24 | ANA | 63 | 4 | 24 | 28 | -20 | 24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 88 | 4.5 | 18:51 |
| 2024-25 | ANA | 68 | 5 | 14 | 19 | -4 | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 69 | 7.2 | 17:36 |
| 2025-26 so far | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Career | — | 131 | 9 | 38 | 47 | -24 | 44 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 157 | 5.7 | 18:12 |
This Season So Far
The 2025-26 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.
Last Season
5 goals and 14 assists in 68 games for 19 points, minus-4, on 17:36 a night.
43.7 per cent at five-on-five, the 9th percentile, over 1,013 minutes. His on-ice goals were 42-39 against an expected 37-48, which is 9 goals of goaltending rescuing a season that was worse than the rating suggests.
The Finesse Game
The skating and the puck-carrying are genuine — he leaves the zone with it under control and he is not panicked by a forecheck, which is unusual at 21.
What has not developed is the offence he was drafted for. 19 points in 68 games in nearly 18 minutes a night is thin, and 55 per cent of his shots come from beyond 40 feet. The junior scoring has not survived contact with the league, and the second season was worse than the first.
The Physical Game
6-1 and 207, and neither heavy nor timid. He defends with position and is not strong enough yet to win a battle against a real NHL forward at the net front.
20 penalty minutes over 68 games. The frame will hold more weight and this is the part of his development that is most likely to arrive on schedule.
The Intangibles
A 10th overall pick given nearly 18 minutes a night at 21 on a club that conceded 250 goals, which is an environment that would make almost any young defenceman look like this.
The fair reading is that nothing has been learned yet — the chance share is a team number as much as a personal one. The unfair reading, which is also available, is that two seasons of this is a pattern. He needs a competent club around him more than he needs anything else.
The numbers underneath
On the ice
Five-on-five, 2024-25 · 1,013 minutes
- Expected goals
- 43.7%
- 9th pct
- Shot attempts
- 43%
- 5th pct
share of the chances while he was out there
share of the attempts while he was out there
Goals while he was on the ice: 42 for, 39 against. Expected: 37.0 and 47.7.
The eye and the numbers
HindsightThe two rank him within 17 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.
Both bars are percentiles among the 357 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 68 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.
Usual linemates
2024-25 · 1013 minutes at five-on-five
- Jacob Trouba28%
Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.
Why the numbers land there
Five-on-five, 2024-25
- The club
- ANA took 44.6% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 43.7% — 0.9 below the club he did it on.
- The role
- 1,013 minutes at five-on-five — 63rd percentile in ice time.
With and without
| Teammate | Together | Him apart | Mate apart |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cutter Gauthier | 49.4% | 41.6% | 43.0% |
| Jacob Trouba | 40.9% | 44.9% | 46.0% |
| Mason McTavish | 47.1% | 42.5% | 40.9% |
49.4% together, 41.6% for him apart and 43.0% for Gauthier apart. Both were worse apart, so whatever the two of them had together was doing real work.
Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.
Where he shoots from
goal on goal missed
112 unblocked shots in 2024-25, 5 of them goals. His median goal came from 24 feet. 13% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 55% from beyond forty.