This is the 2025-26 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →
Pavel Mintyukov
Anaheim Ducks Defense
A 21-year-old defenceman with a 43.7 per cent chance share, which is the 9th percentile in the league.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | PTS | +/- | PIM | PP | SH | GW | S | S% | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-24 | ANA | 63 | 4 | 24 | 28 | -20 | 24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 88 | 4.5 | 18:51 |
| 2024-25 | ANA | 68 | 5 | 14 | 19 | -4 | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 69 | 7.2 | 17:36 |
| 2025-26 so far | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Career | — | 131 | 9 | 38 | 47 | -24 | 44 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 157 | 5.7 | 18:12 |
This Season So Far
The 2025-26 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.
Last Season
5 goals and 14 assists in 68 games for 19 points, minus-4, on 17:36 a night.
43.0 per cent at five-on-five, the 9th percentile, over 1,013 minutes. His on-ice goals were 49-45 against an expected 37-48, which is twelve goals of finishing rescuing a season that was worse than the rating suggests.
The Finesse Game
The skating and the puck-carrying are genuine — he leaves the zone with it under control and he is not panicked by a forecheck, which is unusual at 21.
What has not developed is the offence he was drafted for. 19 points in 68 games in nearly 18 minutes a night is thin, and 55 per cent of his shots come from beyond 40 feet. The junior scoring has not survived contact with the league, and the second season was worse than the first.
The Physical Game
6-1 and 207, and neither heavy nor timid. He defends with position and is not strong enough yet to win a battle against a real NHL forward at the net front.
20 penalty minutes over 68 games. The frame will hold more weight and this is the part of his development that is most likely to arrive on schedule.
The Intangibles
A 10th overall pick given nearly 18 minutes a night at 21 on a club that conceded 263 goals, which is an environment that would make almost any young defenceman look like this.
The fair reading is that nothing has been learned yet — the chance share is a team number as much as a personal one. The unfair reading, which is also available, is that two seasons of this is a pattern. He needs a competent club around him more than he needs anything else.
What kind of player
The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.
- measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
- a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed
- ordinaryraised, and called ordinary
- he lacks itraised, and he does not have it
Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.
- slot-man· shoots from where goals are scored
22.3% of his attempts in the slot, 96th percentile among defencemen
Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.69) · 44% keep it
“he leaves the zone with it under control and he is not panicked by a forecheck”
“He defends with position and is not strong enough yet to win a battle against a real NHL forward at the net front.”
“6-1 and 207, and neither heavy nor timid.”
The numbers underneath
On the ice
Five-on-five, 2024-25 · 1,013 minutes
- Expected goals
- 43%
- 9th pct
- Shot attempts
- 42.8%
- 5th pct
share of the chances while he was out there
share of the attempts while he was out there
Goals while he was on the ice: 49 for, 45 against. Expected: 36.6 and 48.4.
The eye and the numbers
HindsightThe two rank him within 16 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.
Both bars are percentiles among the 637 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 68 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.
Tracked
NHL Edge, 2024-25 · 68 games
- Top speed
- 21.5 mph
- 42nd pct
- Bursts over 20 mph
- 0.56 a game
- Distance
- 2.46 miles a game
- Hardest shot
- 79.5 mph
- 8th pct
fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 21.6
how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes
skated, all strengths
one shot; the league's average best is 89.7
A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.
Usual linemates
2024-25 · 1013 minutes at five-on-five
- Jacob Trouba28%
Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.
Why the numbers land there
Five-on-five, 2024-25
- The club
- ANA took 44.6% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 43.0% — 1.6 below the club he did it on.
- The role
- 1,013 minutes at five-on-five — 63rd percentile in ice time.
With and without
| Teammate | Together | Him apart | Mate apart |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cutter Gauthier | 48.1% | 41.1% | 45.1% |
| Jacob Trouba | 39.8% | 44.4% | 45.7% |
| Mason McTavish | 49.3% | 40.7% | 42.7% |
48.1% together, 41.1% for him apart and 45.1% for Gauthier apart. Both were worse apart, so whatever the two of them had together was doing real work.
Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.
Where he shoots from
goal on goal missed
112 unblocked shots in 2024-25, 5 of them goals. His median goal came from 24 feet. 13% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 55% from beyond forty.