Armchair Hockey Scout

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2025-26 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2025-26 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

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83

Mason McTavish

Anaheim Ducks Center

22 goals and 52 points, and a 42.4 per cent chance share that is the 6th percentile in the entire league.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2021-22ANA9213+320011216.713:05
2022-23ANA80172643-194470116110.615:22
2023-24ANA64192342-238641313014.616:17
2024-25ANA7622305203860218012.216:53
2025-26 so far—————————————
Career—2296080140-39170171748312.416:02

This Season So Far

The 2025-26 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

22 goals and 30 assists in 76 games for 52 points, even, on 16:53 a night — the most points by any forward on the roster who is not Troy Terry.

And 44.4 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five, the 6th percentile among all skaters in the league. His on-ice goals were 49-39 against an expected 40-50. That is not a linemate problem or a usage problem; it is 1,002 minutes of being outplayed.

The Finesse Game

A heavy, quick release and genuine hands in traffic — 22 goals on 180 shots at 12.2 per cent is a real finisher, and 36 per cent of his attempts came from inside 20 feet. He gets to the net and he scores from there.

The playmaking is better than a power forward’s usually is. What is missing is anything resembling puck management: the turnovers are frequent, they happen in his own end as often as the other, and a 44 per cent chance share is what happens when a player keeps giving it back.

The Physical Game

6-1 and 219, and the physical game is the identity. He finishes checks, he is very difficult to move at the net front, and he plays with an edge that occasionally crosses into unhelpful.

38 penalty minutes. Nothing about the way he plays is soft, and on a club with this many young forwards that has value beyond the box score.

The Intangibles

A 3rd overall pick, a world-junior captain, and a player who has scored at a first-line rate for two seasons on a team that has been outshot in almost all of them.

The difficulty is that both readings are defensible. Either he is a 25-goal centre trapped on a bad club, or the chance share is telling the truth about a man who trades offence for defensive cost. He is 22 and the next contract has to be signed before anyone knows which.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • net-fronta strength· lives in the blue paint; the screens and the tips

    “He gets to the net and he scores from there.”

  • playmakera strength· passes up the shot a scorer takes

    “The playmaking is better than a power forward's usually is.”

  • punishinga strength· finishes checks; hurts people legally

    “He finishes checks”

  • hard-to-movea strength· cannot be shifted from where he decides to stand

    “he is very difficult to move at the net front”

  • nastya strength· hard to play against; the edge is the point

    “he plays with an edge that occasionally crosses into unhelpful”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2024-25 · 1,002 minutes

Expected goals
44.4%
14th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
45%
12th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 49 for, 39 against. Expected: 40.0 and 50.2.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
88th
Numbers
14th

The report ranks him 74 points above where the numbers do. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.

Both bars are percentiles among the 637 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 80 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2024-25 · 76 games

Top speed
21.8 mph
31st pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.2

Bursts over 20 mph
0.63 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
2.58 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
91.3 mph
84th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 83.9

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2024-25 · 1002 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2024-25

The club
ANA took 44.6% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 44.4% — 0.2 below the club he did it on.
The role
Third line, 1,002 minutes at five-on-five — 61st percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Cutter Gauthier44.9%44.0%47.0%
Robby Fabbri41.6%46.4%36.9%
Radko Gudas46.2%43.5%46.4%

44.9% together, 44.0% for him apart and 47.0% for Gauthier apart. Splitting them up moved neither man. Whatever is driving the share, it is not this pairing.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

275 unblocked shots in 2024-25, 23 of them goals. His median goal came from 17 feet. 36% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 19% from beyond forty.