Armchair Hockey Scout

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2022-23 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2022-23 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

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55

Thomas Harley

Dallas Stars Defense

Thirty-four games at 21, and the peer group this edition measures against does not include him.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2021-22DAL34134-46000362.813:41
2022-23 so far—————————————
Career—34134-46000362.813:41

This Season So Far

The 2022-23 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

1 goal and 3 assists in 34 games at 13:41 a night, with a minus-4 and 6 penalty minutes.

Every percentile in this book is drawn against defencemen with 40 games and 500 minutes, and he has neither. What follows is raw, and the absence of a peer group is the point: thirty-four games is not a season and nothing here should be read as one.

54.8 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 460 minutes. His ice went 17-20 against an expectation of 21.86-18.01 — five goals fewer than the chances promised and two more against.

The Finesse Game

Thirty-six shots in thirty-four games. The median travels 50 feet, 10 per cent come from inside 20, and 59 per cent from beyond 40 — the shot chart of a defenceman being asked to keep it simple, which is what a 20-year-old gets.

No power-play time worth the name. One goal, three assists, and the four points arrived over five months.

87.0 mph off the stick, which is soft, and the same caveat applies: a maximum is a season best, and a third of a season is a third of the chances to set one.

The Physical Game

6-3 and 214, and he was 20 all season.

22.1 mph top speed and 2.05 miles a game. Both figures sit low, and both are exactly what thirteen minutes a night produces — a top speed is the fastest he happened to go, so fewer shifts means fewer chances at a high one, and the number should not be read as a verdict on how he skates.

Six penalty minutes in thirty-four games.

The Intangibles

Eighteenth overall in 2019, and thirty-four NHL games at 21.

With John Klingberg he took 57.4 per cent of the chances over 424 attempts and 51.9 without him — and Klingberg is in Anaheim now, which makes that the least useful good number in the chapter. With Jason Robertson he is at 59.2 over 315.

The blue line ahead of him is a 37-year-old at 23 minutes, a 23-year-old at 25, a defensive specialist at 22 and a 6-7 checker at 16. There is no obvious minute for him and there is no obvious reason to keep him in the American League either. That is the whole question about his season and the data does not answer it.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • drives-play· the shot clock turns his way while he is out there

    54.8% of the expected goals at five-on-five with him on, 50.5% for his club in the minutes he sat: +4.3, 94th percentile among defencemen

    Season to season, this measure repeats moderately (0.39) · 29% keep it

  • sheltered· is started in the attacking end

    65% of his end-zone starts in the attacking end, 99th percentile among defencemen

    Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.66) · 47% keep it

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2021-22 · 460 minutes

Expected goals
54.8%
85th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
52.5%
75th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 17 for, 20 against. Expected: 21.9 and 18.0.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
8th
Numbers
85th

The numbers rank him 77 points above where the report does. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.

Both bars are percentiles among the 649 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 49 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2021-22 · 34 games

Top speed
22.1 mph
72nd pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 21.5

Bursts over 20 mph
0.76 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
2.05 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
87.0 mph
24th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 90.4

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2021-22 · 460 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2021-22

The club
DAL took 51.0% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 54.8% — 3.8 above the club he did it on.
The role
460 minutes at five-on-five — 16th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
John Klingberg57.4%51.9%50.3%
Jason Robertson59.2%51.8%58.3%
Joe Pavelski56.3%53.8%57.1%

57.4% together, 51.9% for him apart and 50.3% for Klingberg apart. Both were worse apart, so whatever the two of them had together was doing real work.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

59 unblocked shots in 2021-22, 1 of them goals. His median goal came from 26 feet. 10% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 59% from beyond forty.