Armchair Hockey Scout

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2022-23 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2022-23 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

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13

Gabriel Vilardi

Los Angeles Kings Center

Eleventh overall in 2017 and eighty-nine games in five years, with the shortest median shot distance on the club.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2019-20LAK10347041001915.812:51
2020-21LAK54101323-863036515.414:45
2021-22LAK25527-582014112.213:31
2022-23 so far—————————————
Career—89181937-131860412514.414:11

This Season So Far

The 2022-23 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

Twenty-five games, five goals and two assists, 13:31 a night, minus-5. Eight penalty minutes. Career: 89 games and 37 points across five seasons since Los Angeles took him 11th overall in 2017.

Two hundred and ninety-eight five-on-five minutes is far below any qualifying line, so the percentile tables do not hold him.

The Finesse Game

A 16-foot median shot distance is the shortest on the roster, with 52 per cent of his shots inside twenty feet. He shoots from the paint, five goals on forty-one shots is 12.2 per cent, and both of those are the encouraging half of this report.

The other half is severe. His ice took 45.3 per cent of the expected goals, the worst share of any King who played twenty games, and went 8-13 against an expectation of 9.78-11.78. 46.4 per cent of his end-zone starts came in the attacking end, which is below even and nothing like enough to excuse it.

The pair file agrees. With Rasmus Kupari across 282 attempts he was at 47.6 per cent, and 42.7 without him; with Quinton Byfield, 48.1 and 42.1 apart. Every version of his season is under water, and the versions with the club’s other young forwards are the least bad ones.

The Physical Game

Eight penalty minutes in twenty-five games at 6-3 and 216. He does not play a physical game and the shot chart is the only evidence that he goes to hard areas.

21.5 mph is the 13th percentile of the 568 skaters who played forty, and 2.15 miles a game is the 21st. He is among the slower forwards the league tracks and does not cover much ground — a combination that makes the net-front shot chart look less like a choice and more like the only place he can get to.

The Intangibles

85.8 mph is the 15th percentile — one of the softest shots on the club, which sits badly beside a player whose entire case is scoring from close range.

Five seasons, 89 games, no season above 54. The injuries are the stated reason and this repo cannot see them, so what remains is a record of a top-eleven pick who has not held a lineup spot at 23. The shot location is the only column arguing for him, and it is arguing quietly.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • net-fronta strength· lives in the blue paint; the screens and the tips

    “A 16-foot median shot distance is the shortest on the roster, with 52 per cent of his shots inside twenty feet.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2021-22 · 298 minutes

Expected goals
45.3%
19th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
44.8%
14th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 8 for, 13 against. Expected: 9.8 and 11.8.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
4th
Numbers
19th

The two rank him within 15 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 649 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 47 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2021-22 · 25 games

Top speed
21.5 mph
24th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.0

Bursts over 20 mph
0.60 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
2.15 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
85.8 mph
44th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 84.1

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2021-22 · 298 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2021-22

The club
LAK took 52.8% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 45.3% — 7.5 below the club he did it on.
The role
298 minutes at five-on-five — 8th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Rasmus Kupari47.6%42.7%46.0%
Quinton Byfield48.1%42.1%48.4%
Alexander Edler43.6%46.0%58.0%

47.6% together, 42.7% for him apart and 46.0% for Kupari apart. He was worse away from Kupari, who was no better away from him — he needed that pairing more than Kupari did.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

52 unblocked shots in 2021-22, 5 of them goals. His median goal came from 25 feet. 52% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 13% from beyond forty.