Armchair Hockey Scout

Ask the book

2022-23 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2022-23 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

2

Patrik Nemeth

Arizona Coyotes Defense

Six-four and 230, the 89th percentile in blocks, and the second-lowest chance share among the league qualified defencemen — a cap dump the Rangers were glad to be rid of.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2013-14DAL8000-3600030.013:46
2014-15DAL2203306000160.016:13
2015-16DAL38088-114000360.015:38
2016-17DAL40033-414000460.015:47
2017-18COL6831215+2741000734.119:51
2018-19COL741910+553000571.816:29
2019-20DET64189-1028001891.122:02
2020-21DET/COL523710+520000535.718:01
2021-22NYR63257-928001523.916:38
2022-23 so far—————————————
Career—429105565+102100024252.417:51

This Season So Far

The 2022-23 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

With the Rangers. 2 goals and 5 assists in 63 games — 7 points at 16:38 a night, minus-9, on 52 shots and 28 penalty minutes.

39.2 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 947 minutes — the second-lowest of the 202 defencemen who played 40 games and 500 minutes, behind only Dysin Mayo, who will be his team-mate.

And the goals did not follow it. His ice went 28-40 against an expectation of 27.71-42.96: the scoring landed where the chances said and three fewer went in behind him than they predicted. New York’s goaltending finished 23.4 goals ahead of the chances it faced, 2nd in the league, and it covered a great deal: the Rangers won 52 games on the 25th-ranked chance share in hockey.

The Finesse Game

There is none. 0.44 even-strength points per 60 is the 5th percentile among defencemen, 2.98 shots per 60 is the 9th, and 65 points in 429 career games is the whole record.

1.03 giveaways per 60 is the 6th-lowest rate at the position, which is the honest positive: he makes the short pass, he does not try the hard one, and the puck does not come back off his stick.

He took four seconds a night of power play.

The Physical Game

6-4 and 230, and 6.58 hits per 60 at the 81st percentile is a man who defends by occupying space. 5.84 blocks per 60 is the 89th percentile among defencemen — he is in front of pucks all night and he is not moved out of his own crease.

The legs are the reason the chance share is what it is. Top speed 21.2 mph is the 15th percentile and 0.6 bursts above 20 mph per 60 is the 17th. A defenceman this slow is beaten to every retrieval, and no amount of blocking recovers the shift once that has happened.

The Intangibles

Forty-first overall in 2010 by Dallas, and 429 games across Dallas, Colorado twice over, Detroit and the Rangers.

He is 30, and Arizona took him from New York for nothing because New York wanted the contract off its books. That is the actual reason he is here, and this club is one of the few places in hockey where the second-worst chance share among qualified defencemen does not disqualify a man from playing sixteen minutes.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • shot-blockera strength· gets in front of it

    “5.84 blocks per 60 is the 89th percentile among defencemen”

  • hard-to-movea strength· cannot be shifted from where he decides to stand

    “6-4 and 230, and 6.58 hits per 60 at the 81st percentile is a man who defends by occupying space”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2021-22 · 947 minutes

Expected goals
39.2%
2nd pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
40.7%
2nd pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 28 for, 40 against. Expected: 27.7 and 43.0.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
4th
Numbers
2nd

The two rank him within 2 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 649 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 47 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2021-22 · 63 games

Top speed
21.2 mph
36th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 21.5

Bursts over 20 mph
0.16 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
2.37 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
92.6 mph
52nd pct

one shot; the league's average best is 90.4

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2021-22 with NYR · 947 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2021-22

The club
NYR took 46.7% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 39.2% — 7.5 below the club he did it on.
The role
Third pair, 947 minutes at five-on-five — 56th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Braden Schneider37.3%40.4%47.3%
Barclay Goodrow35.3%40.7%45.6%
Filip Chytil39.3%39.1%53.7%

37.3% together, 40.4% for him apart and 47.3% for Schneider apart. Both were better apart than together — the pairing was doing neither of them any favours.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

76 unblocked shots in 2021-22, 2 of them goals. His median goal came from 49 feet. 8% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 80% from beyond forty.