Armchair Hockey Scout

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2024-25 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2024-25 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

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17

Alex Killorn

Anaheim Ducks Left Wing

Two Stanley Cups, five hundred and two points, and thirty-five years old on a club that will not win fifty games.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2012-13TBL3871219-614102828.516:49
2013-14TBL82172441+8633021739.816:47
2014-15TBL71152338+83611513011.516:56
2015-16TBL81142640+14443031549.116:48
2016-17TBL81191736-96641417610.818:00
2017-18TBL82153247+22452011569.616:30
2018-19TBL82182240+224521215311.814:52
2019-20TBL68262349+192080713020.017:56
2020-21TBL56151833-13750112112.417:54
2021-22TBL82253459+16660216415.218:42
2022-23TBL82273764+184531514318.917:13
2023-24ANA63181836-155450514512.418:44
2024-25 so far—————————————
Career—868216286502+8153543439172712.517:14

This Season So Far

The 2024-25 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

18 goals and 18 assists in 63 games — 36 points at 18:44 a night, minus-15, with 5 power-play goals and 5 game-winners on 145 shots, converting at 12.41 per cent, and 54 penalty minutes. His first season here after eleven in Tampa.

47.7 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 937 minutes, the 36th percentile — the best of any forward on the roster who played a full year. His ice went 35-47 against an expectation of 36.77-40.32 — thirteen goals of scoring missing, the worst finishing luck on the club.

The Finesse Game

145 attempts at a median of 25 feet, with 42 per cent from inside 20 and 20 per cent from beyond 40, converting at 12.41 per cent.

He plays inside. The shot is taken from the paint and the front of the crease rather than from range, which is the same thing he did for eleven years in Tampa and is why the conversion has never fallen away.

18 assists. He is a complementary scorer rather than a distributor, and 216 goals against 286 assists in 868 games is a career of being the right winger on somebody else’s line.

The Physical Game

6-1 and 205. He goes to the front of the net and he stays there, and the willingness to take a cross-check in the back and not move is the reason the conversion rate exists.

54 penalty minutes in 63 games and 535 in 868. He is an agitator — he talks, he finishes late, and he has been drawing retaliation for a decade.

The Intangibles

Seventy-seventh overall in 2007, eleven seasons in Tampa, two Stanley Cups, and 868 games and 502 points.

He is 35 and he signed a four-year contract with a club that finished thirtieth. What he is here for is not the eighteen goals — it is that a room of twenty-year-olds now contains a man who has won two Cups and knows what a good team looks like from the inside.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed
  • he lacks itraised, and he does not have it

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • workhorse· carries the load at even strength

    14:52 a game at five-on-five, 92nd percentile among forwards

    Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.78) · 58% keep it

  • net-fronta strength· lives in the blue paint; the screens and the tips

    “**He goes to the front of the net and he stays there**, and the willingness to take a cross-check in the back and not move is the reason the conversion rate exists.”

  • hard-to-movea strength· cannot be shifted from where he decides to stand

    “**He goes to the front of the net and he stays there**, and the willingness to take a cross-check in the back and not move is the reason the conversion rate exists.”

  • agitatora strength· gets under the skin; draws the retaliation

    “**He is an agitator** — he talks, he finishes late, and he has been drawing retaliation for a decade.”

  • playmakerhe lacks it· passes up the shot a scorer takes

    “He is a complementary scorer rather than a distributor, and 216 goals against 286 assists in 868 games is a career of being the right winger on somebody else's line.”

  • leadershipa strength· the room, and who holds it

    “**What he is here for is not the eighteen goals** — it is that a room of twenty-year-olds now contains a man who has won two Cups and knows what a good team looks like from the inside.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2023-24 · 937 minutes

Expected goals
47.7%
36th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
51.1%
64th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 35 for, 47 against. Expected: 36.8 and 40.3.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
47th
Numbers
36th

The two rank him within 11 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 652 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 69 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2023-24 · 63 games

Top speed
21.5 mph
21st pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.1

Bursts over 20 mph
0.86 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
2.78 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
90.9 mph
75th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 84.5

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2023-24 · 937 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2023-24

The club
ANA took 45.9% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 47.7% — 1.8 above the club he did it on.
The role
Second line, 937 minutes at five-on-five — 51st percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Troy Terry49.3%46.0%45.6%
Leo Carlsson51.8%43.5%51.2%
Cam Fowler46.2%48.7%44.1%

49.3% together, 46.0% for him apart and 45.6% for Terry apart. Both were worse apart, so whatever the two of them had together was doing real work.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

202 unblocked shots in 2023-24, 18 of them goals. His median goal came from 23 feet. 42% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 20% from beyond forty.