Armchair Hockey Scout

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2024-25 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2024-25 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

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83

Mason McTavish

Anaheim Ducks Center

Nineteen goals and eighty-six penalty minutes at twenty-one — the hardest young forward on this roster to play against.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2021-22ANA9213+320011216.713:05
2022-23ANA80172643-194470116110.615:22
2023-24ANA64192342-238641313014.616:17
2024-25 so far—————————————
Career—153385088-39132111530312.515:37

This Season So Far

The 2024-25 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

19 goals and 23 assists in 64 games — 42 points at 16:17 a night, minus-23, with 4 power-play goals, 1 shorthanded goal and 3 game-winners on 130 shots, converting at 14.62 per cent, and 86 penalty minutes.

45.2 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 868 minutes, the 22nd percentile. His ice went 41-58 against an expectation of 34.22-41.43 — almost exactly what the chances said, which on this club is unusual.

The Finesse Game

130 attempts at a median of 24 feet, with 42 per cent from inside 20 and 16 per cent from beyond 40, converting at 14.62 per cent. He shoots from where goals are scored and he does not waste attempts from the boards.

He goes to the net and he arrives before the puck does. The hands in tight are good and the release is heavy for a 21-year-old.

23 assists. He will make the pass but he is a scorer first and the club is right to use him that way.

The Physical Game

6-1 and 219, and he is the hardest of the young forwards here to play against. He finishes checks, he wins pucks below the goal line, and he does not step out of a scrum.

86 penalty minutes in 64 games at 21 and 132 in 153 career games. Some of that is the edge and some of it is a young centre answering a cross-check he should have let go. He retaliates, and on a club that spent 6:08 a game shorthanded that is not free.

The Intangibles

Third overall in 2021, and 153 games and 88 points before his twenty-second birthday.

He captained Canada to a world junior gold and scored the goal that won it. This is a player whose compete is the loudest thing about him — on a club losing fifty games, the twenty-one-year-old was the one still finishing checks in March.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • clutch· scored his goals when the game was still live

    4 of his 19 goals late or in overtime, 93rd percentile among forwards

    Season to season, this measure barely repeats (0.06) · 10% keep it

  • net-fronta strength· lives in the blue paint; the screens and the tips

    “**He goes to the net and he arrives before the puck does.** The hands in tight are good and the release is heavy for a 21-year-old.”

  • punishinga strength· finishes checks; hurts people legally

    “**6-1 and 219, and he is the hardest of the young forwards here to play against.** He finishes checks, he wins pucks below the goal line, and he does not step out of a scrum.”

  • wins-the-walla strength· the corners and below the goal line

    “**6-1 and 219, and he is the hardest of the young forwards here to play against.** He finishes checks, he wins pucks below the goal line, and he does not step out of a scrum.”

  • nastya strength· hard to play against; the edge is the point

    “**6-1 and 219, and he is the hardest of the young forwards here to play against.** He finishes checks, he wins pucks below the goal line, and he does not step out of a scrum.”

  • retaliatesa strength· answers the cross-check, and takes the second penalty

    “**He retaliates**, and on a club that spent 6:08 a game shorthanded that is not free.”

  • leadershipa strength· the room, and who holds it

    “**This is a player whose compete is the loudest thing about him** — on a club losing fifty games, the twenty-one-year-old was the one still finishing checks in March.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2023-24 · 868 minutes

Expected goals
45.2%
23rd pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
45.3%
18th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 41 for, 58 against. Expected: 34.2 and 41.4.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
80th
Numbers
23rd

The report ranks him 57 points above where the numbers do. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.

Both bars are percentiles among the 652 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 76 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2023-24 · 64 games

Top speed
22.3 mph
54th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.1

Bursts over 20 mph
0.61 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
2.53 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
93.3 mph
85th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 84.5

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2023-24 · 868 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2023-24

The club
ANA took 45.9% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 45.2% — 0.7 below the club he did it on.
The role
First line, 868 minutes at five-on-five — 45th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Frank Vatrano43.9%48.3%43.7%
Ryan Strome44.2%46.1%43.9%
Cam Fowler46.0%44.8%44.2%

43.9% together, 48.3% for him apart and 43.7% for Vatrano apart. He was better away from Vatrano, who was no worse away from him — the pairing cost him more than it cost Vatrano.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

185 unblocked shots in 2023-24, 19 of them goals. His median goal came from 12 feet. 42% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 16% from beyond forty.